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CBO-CB0-Monthly Budget Review for August 2014
September 8, 2014--The federal government ran a budget deficit of $589 billion for the first 11 months of fiscal year 2014, CBO estimates-$166 billion less than the shortfall recorded over the same period last year. Through the end of August, revenues were about 8 percent higher and outlays were about 1 percent higher than they were at the same point last year.
In CBO's most recent budget projections, the agency estimated that the deficit for fiscal year 2014 (which will end on September 30, 2014) will total $506 billion, about $170 billion less than last year's deficit.
Total Receipts: Up by 8 Percent in the First 11 Months of Fiscal Year 2014
Receipts through August of this fiscal year totaled $2,663 billion, CBO estimates-$190 billion more than the amount for the same period last year.
view more
Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
CBO Expects Economic Growth to Pick Up in the Next Few Years
August 28, 2014--Yesterday CBO released its updated budget and economic outlook. To get a quick overview of our new economic forecast, view The Economic Outlook for 2014 to 2024 in 15 Slides.
As described in both the report and slides, CBO anticipates that, under the assumption that current laws governing federal taxes and spending generally remain in place, the economy will grow slowly this year, on balance, and then at a faster but still moderate pace over the next few years.
In the first half of this year, real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an average annual rate of just 0.9 percent; but CBO expects a stronger second half, so for the year as a whole, the agency projects the rate of growth to be 1.5 percent, as measured by the change from the fourth quarter of 2013.
view the CBO The Economic Outlook for 2014 to 2024 in 15 Slides view the CBO Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024 CBO Expects Economic Growth to Pick Up in the Next Few Years view the CBO The Economic Outlook for 2014 to 2024 in 15 Slides view the CBO Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024 Van Eck files with the SEC US banks warn on 'excessive' risk-taking view more BATS Exchange Welcomes Two New ProShares Exchange-Traded Funds view more CB0-Monthly Budget Review for July 2014 view more
ETFis files with the SEC Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates During the October-December 2014 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $187 billion in net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $140 billion. view more Morgan Stanley-US ETF Weekly Update
ETFs posted net inflows of $9.8 bln last week, the first net inflows in three weeks
13-week flows remain positive among asset classes; combined $56.4 bln in net inflows US-Listed ETFs: Estimated Largest Flows by Individual ETF
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) posted net inflows of $6.5 bln last week, the most of any ETF US-Listed ETFs: ETF Dollar Volume
ETF monthly $ volume as a % of listed trading volume increased in July to 24%, up from 22% the prior month; over the last 5 years, ETF monthly $ volume as a % of listed trading volume averaged 28%
Over the last five years, ETF monthly $ volume as a % of listed trading volume peaked in August 2011 at 36%
ETF $ volume was $144 bln more last week compared to the prior week and is 42% above its 13-week average
US Small- & Micro-Cap ETFs accounted for 7% of ETF $ volume last week compared to their 13-week average of 10% and market cap share of 4% US-Listed ETFs: Short Interest Data Unchanged: Based on data as of 7/15/14
Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF) had the largest increase in USD short interest at $636 mln
The average shares short/shares outstanding for ETFs is currently 4.3%, up from 4.0% last period request report
Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
August 28, 2014--Yesterday CBO released its updated budget and economic outlook. To get a quick overview of our new economic forecast, view The Economic Outlook for 2014 to 2024 in 15 Slides.
As described in both the report and slides, CBO anticipates that, under the assumption that current laws governing federal taxes and spending generally remain in place, the economy will grow slowly this year, on balance, and then at a faster but still moderate pace over the next few years.
In the first half of this year, real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an average annual rate of just 0.9 percent; but CBO expects a stronger second half, so for the year as a whole, the agency projects the rate of growth to be 1.5 percent, as measured by the change from the fourth quarter of 2013.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
August 8, 2014--Van Eck has filed a post-effective amendment, registration statement with the SEC for the Market Vectors [Emerging Markets Corporate Bond] ETF.
view filing
Source: SEC.gov
August 8, 2104--An influential group of Wall Street banks has warned the US Treasury that low volatility in many markets is creating a feedback loop that exacerbates "excessive risk-taking" by investors.
A member of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee- a group of banks and investors selected to help advise on markets and the economy -made the warning in a presentation this week.
Source: FT.com
ProShares TYTE and WYDE Begin Trading Thursday
August 7, 2014--BATS Global Markets (BATS), a leading operator of securities markets in the U.S. and Europe, today announced that the ProShares CDS North American HY Credit ETF (BATS: TYTE) and the ProShares CDS Short North American HY Credit ETF (BATS: WYDE) begin trading today on BATS Exchange.
The additions give ProShares, a premier provider of alternative exchange-traded funds, a total of seven ETF listings on BATS Exchange. The new ProShares ETFs seek to provide long or short exposure to the credit of North American high yield debt issuers.
Source: BATS Global Markets, Inc.
August 7, 2014--The federal government ran a budget deficit of $462 billion for the first 10 months of fiscal year 2014, CBO estimates-$146 billion less than the shortfall recorded over the same span last year. Through the end of July, revenues were about 8 percent higher and outlays were about 1 percent higher than they were at the same point last year.
On the basis of the revenue and spending totals thus far this fiscal year, CBO expects that the annual deficit will be in the vicinity of $500 billion, slightly larger than the $492 billion that it projected in April. CBO will publish new budget projections later in August, including an updated estimate of the deficit for fiscal year 2014.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
August 6, 2014--ETFis has filed a post-effective amendment, registration statement with the SEC.
view filing
Source: SEC.gov
August 4, 2014--The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of net marketable borrowing for the July-September 2014 and October-December 2014 quarters:
During the July- September 2014 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $192 billion in net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $150 billion.
This borrowing estimate is $22 billion higher than announced in April 2014. The increase in borrowing relates primarily to lower receipts and changes in cash balance assumptions[1].
Source: US Department of the Treasury
August 4, 2014--US ETF Weekly Update
Weekly Flows: $9.8 Billion Net Inflows
ETFs Have Generated Net Inflows 22 of 31 Weeks YTD
ETF Assets Stand at $1.8 Trillion, Up 8% YTD
Six ETF Launches Last Week
Emerging Global Advisors Announces Four ETF Closures
AdvisorShares Announces New Sub-Advisor for GTAA
US-Listed ETFs: Estimated Flows by Market Segment
Last week's net inflows were led by US Large-Cap ETFs at $8.0 bln; conversely, US Mid-Cap ETFs posted net outflows of $1.4 bln, the most of any category we measured
Eleven of the 15 categories we measured posted net inflows last week; ETFs have generated net inflows 22 of the 31 weeks YTD
ETF assets stand at $1.8 tln, up 8% YTD
US Large-Cap ETFs generated net inflows of $18.0 bln over the last 13 weeks, the most of any category, and surpassing International-Developed ETFs, with $10.9 bln in net inflows
Fixed Income ETFs have managed to generate net inflows of $7.7 bln over the last 13 weeks, despite some of the larger ETFs in the category posting net outflows
US Small-& Micro-Cap ETFs exhibited net outflows of $2.9 bln over the last 13 weeks and was the only category to post net outflows
The average shares short/shares outstanding for ETFs is currently 4.3%, up from 4.0% last period
The SPDR Retail ETF (XRT) is the most heavily shorted ETF as measured by shares short/shares outstanding for the eighth consecutive period at 428% (down from 478% last period)
Six of the 10 most heavily shorted ETFs as a % of shares outstanding are industry based (XRT, XOP, IYR, SMH, XBI, TOLZ)
Based on multiple borrowings and the ability to continuously create new shares, shares short as a % of shares outstanding can exceed 100% (only nine ETFs exhibited shares short as a % of shares outstanding greater than 100%)
Despite volatile equity markets, SPY and the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) generated a combined $7.6 bln in net inflows last week and $12.6 bln in net inflows over the last 13 weeks; SPY and IVV are the two largest ETFs as measured by market capitalization
The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) and the First Trust Consumer Staples AlphaDEX Fund (FXG) had combined net outflows of $1.6 bln last week, which accounts for 25% of their current market capitalization
Notably, the two largest emerging market equity ETFs, the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) posted a combined $1.5 bln in net inflows last week and $5.9 bln over the last 13 weeks
The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) and the SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) exhibited a combined $1.1 bln in net outflows last week, which accounts for 5% of their current market capitalization; we have experienced meaningful spread widening in high yield over the past month
Notably, XLF and two REIT ETFs (also Financials) experienced the largest $ change in short interest last period
722 ETFs exhibited short interest increases while 586 experienced short interest declines over the last period
Aggregate ETF USD short interest increased by $794 mln over the period ended 7/15/14
The SPDR Retail ETF (XRT) is the most heavily shorted ETF as measured by shares short/shares outstanding for the eighth consecutive period at 428% (down from 478% last period)
Six of the 10 most heavily shorted ETFs as a % of shares outstanding are industry based (XRT, XOP, IYR, SMH, XBI, TOLZ)
Based on multiple borrowings and the ability to continuously create new shares, shares short as a % of shares outstanding can exceed 100% (only nine ETFs exhibited shares short as a % of shares outstanding greater than 100%)
Source: Morgan Stanley
