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Morgan Stanely-US ETF Weekly Update
June 23, 2014--US ETF Weekly Update
Weekly Flows: $7.7 Billion Net Inflows
6th Consecutive Week of ETF Net Inflows
ETFs Have Generated Net Inflows 18 of 25 Weeks YTD
ETF Assets Stand at $1.8 Trillion, Up 9% YTD
One ETF Launch Last Week
US-Listed ETFs: Estimated Flows by Market Segment
ETFs posted net inflows of $7.7 bln last week, the sixth consecutive week of net inflows
Last week's net inflows were led by US Large-Cap ETFs at $3.3 bln; conversely, Fixed Income ETFs posted net outflows of $2.8 bln, the most of any category we measured
Eleven of the 15 categories we measured posted net inflows last week; ETFs have generated net inflows 18 of the 25 weeks YTD
ETF assets stand at $1.8 tln, up 9% YTD
13-week flows remain positive among asset classes; combined $43.9 bln in net inflows
Despite negative flows last week, Fixed Income ETFs generated $12.1 bln in net inflows over the last 13 weeks, the most of any category we measured; Fixed Income ETFs currently have a 14% market share, lagging only US Large-Cap ETFs - US Small- & Micro-Cap ETFs have exhibited net outflows of $6.2 bln over the last 13 weeks, the most of any category
US-Listed ETFs: Estimated Largest Flows by Individual ETF
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) posted net inflows of $2.0 bln this past week, the most of any ETF
The 10 ETFs to generate the largest net inflows last week were US equity-based
The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) also had a strong week, posting net inflows of $1.7 bln; XLP’s net inflows account for 24% of its current market cap
The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) exhibited net outflows of $3.3 bln last week, the most of any ETF; interestingly, yield on the 10 Year Treasury was essentially flat last week
Over the last 13 weeks, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) posted net inflows of $6.8 bln, the most of any ETF as money has flocked to emerging market equity ETFs
US-Listed ETFs: ETF Dollar Volume
ETF monthly $ volume as a % of listed trading volume decreased in May to 24%, down from 25% the prior month; over the last 5 years, ETF monthly $ volume as a % of listed trading volume averaged 28%
Over the last five years, ETF monthly $ volume as a % of listed trading volume peaked in August 2011 at 36%
ETF $ volume was $51 bln higher last week compared to the prior week, and is essentially in-line with its 13-week average
US Mid-Cap ETFs accounted for 3% of ETF $ volume last week, which is above its 13-week average of 1%
US-Listed ETFs: Short Interest Data Unchanged: Based on data as of 5/30/14
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) had the largest increase in USD short interest at $2.5 bln
The iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) also had a jump in short interest ($223 mln) and EFA’s shares short are at their highest level since the period ended 10/31/13; notably, EFA is up nearly 7% since 10/31/13
610 ETFs exhibited short interest increases while 651 experienced short interest declines over the last period
Aggregate ETF USD short interest increased by $581 mln over the period ended 5/30/14
The average shares short/shares outstanding for ETFs is currently 4.0%, equal to last period
The SPDR Retail ETF (XRT) is the most heavily shorted ETF as measured by shares short/shares outstanding for the fifth consecutive period at 316%
Five of the 10 most heavily shorted ETFs as a % of shares outstanding are industry based (XRT, XOP, IYR, XBI, SMH)
Based on multiple borrowings and the ability to continuously create new shares, shares short as a % of shares outstanding can exceed 100% (only seven ETFs exhibited shares short as a % of shares outstanding greater than 100%)
US-Listed ETFs: Most Successful Recent Launches by Assets
$8.3 bln in total market cap of ETFs less than 1-year old
More International - Developed ETFs were launched over the past year than any other category that we measured; International - Developed ETFs account for 22% of market share of ETFs launched over the last year
While only accounting for 13% of recently launched market share, US Sector & Industry ETFs exhibited net inflows of $494 mln over the last 13 weeks, the most of any category
95 new ETF listings and 19 closures YTD
The top 10 most successful launches make up 37% of the market cap of ETFs launched over the past year
Eight ETF sponsors and two asset classes (equities and fixed income) were represented in top 10 most successful launches
Despite not cracking the top 10 most successful launches, the Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 3x Shares (JDST) generated net inflows of $23 mln last week, the most of any recently launched ETF; JDST is a leveraged inverse investment on gold mining equities
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Source: Morgan Stanley
State Street Launches Six International Quality ETFs-ETF News And Commentary
June 20, 2014--With the World Bank having recently cut its global growth forecast for 2014 to 2.8% from its earlier outlook of 3.2%, the need for better stocks with stronger fundamentals has become imperative for a portfolio.
Better or high quality stocks are expected to perform well given the sluggish economic picture and a general lack of investor confidence.
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Source: NASDAQ
CBO-Effects on Economic Growth of Federal Investment and Reductions in Federal Deficits and Debt
June 20, 2014--As was mentioned in Wednesday's blog post, we think that some of the answers to follow-up questions from Congressional hearings may be of general interest
Following a hearing on the budget and economic outlook, a Member of Congress asked whether federal investment or reductions in federal deficits and debt would be better for achieving economic growth.
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Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
J.P. Morgan launching its first exchange-traded fund
June 19, 2014--J.P. Morgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) is launching its first exchange-traded fund on Tuesday as the Wall Street bank's asset management business makes its debut in the $1.8 trillion U.S. exchange-traded fund arena.
The JPMorgan Diversified Return Global Equity ETF (JPGE.P) is set to start trading Tuesday on the NYSE Arca under the ticker "JPGE." The launch brings J.P. Morgan Asset Management, a long-time mutual fund provider, into a fast-growing ETF market dominated by asset managers including BlackRock Inc (BLK.N), State Street Corp (STT.N) and Vanguard Group.
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Source: Reuters
UPDATE 2-U.S.-based stock funds attract $5.3 bln over week-Lipper
June 19, 2014--Investors in U.S.-based funds committed $5.3 billion to stock funds in the week ended June 18
after adding $10 billion to the funds the prior week, data from
Thomson Reuters' Lipper service showed on Thursday.
Stock mutual funds attracted $126 million in new cash, while
stock exchange-traded funds added $5.2 billion. Stock mutual
funds are commonly purchased by retail investors, while stock
ETFs are thought to represent the institutional investor.
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Source: Reuters
SEC holds up Eaton Vance's non-transparent ETF plans
June 19, 2014--The US market regulator has hit pause on the approval process for Eaton Vance's non-transparent active exchange traded products, saying it needs more time to consider the education and market challenges of the novel structure.
The Securities and Exchange Commission has instituted so-called formal proceedings on the request to allow Nasdaq to list the...
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Source: FT.com
Niemann Capital Management to Provide Trade Signals to United Capital for ETF Managed Portfolios
June 19, 2014--Niemann Capital Management, an ETF Managed Strategist that invests in opportunities around the world for high-net-worth investors and institutions, was recently hired by United Capital to provide ETF trade signals.
United Capital is a premier wealth management firm with approximately $10 billion in assets under management and offices across the nation.
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Source: Niemann Capital Management
CBO's Projections of GDP Per Capita
June 18, 2014--After CBO participates in Congressional hearings, the Members of the Committees before which we have testified often send us questions that they did not have time to ask during the hearings themselves.
Our answers to such "questions for the record" are ultimately included in the reported proceedings for those hearings.
Today's post will focus on a question about CBO's projections of real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.
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Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
J.P. Morgan launching its first exchange-traded fund
June 17, 2014--J.P. Morgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) is launching its first exchange-traded fund on Tuesday as the Wall Street bank's asset management business makes its debut in the $1.8 trillion U.S. exchange-traded fund arena.
The JPMorgan Diversified Return Global Equity ETF (JPGE.P) is set to start trading Tuesday on the NYSE Arca under the ticker "JPGE." The launch brings J.P. Morgan Asset Management,m a long-time mutual fund provider, into a fast-growing ETF market dominated by asset managers including BlackRock Inc (BLK.N), State Street Corp (STT.N) and Vanguard Group.
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Source: Reuters
2014 Article IV Consultation with the United States of America Concluding Statement of the IMF Mission
June 16, 2014--The 2014 U.S. Article IV highlighted five broad themes to both strengthen the recovery and improve the long-term outlook: raising productivity growth and labor participation, confronting poverty, keeping public debt on a sustained downward path, managing the exit from zero policy rates, and securing a safer financial system.
To achieve these goals and fortify the country's economic future the policy focus should be to undertake more proactive labor market policies that lower long-term unemployment and raise participation; increase the minimum wage while strengthening the Earned Income Tax Credit; invest in infrastructure; improve the tax structure and raise revenues; fundamentally reform social security; and lower the growth of health care costs.
1.Near-term growth and jobs. In the early part of this year, as a harsh winter conspired with other factors (including inventory drawdown, a still-struggling housing market, and slower external demand), momentum faded in the U.S economy. Recent data, however, suggest a meaningful rebound in activity is now underway and growth for the remainder of this year and 2015 should well exceed potential.
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Source: IMF
