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IMF Working Paper-China's Evolving Exchange Rate Regime
March 7, 2019--Summary:
China's exchange rate regime has undergone gradual reform since the move away from a fixed exchange rate in 2005. The renminbi has become more flexible over time but is still carefully managed, and depth and liquidity in the onshore FX market is relatively low compared to other countries with de jure floating currencies.
Allowing a greater role for market forces within the existing regime, and greater two-way flexibility of the exchange rate, are important steps to build on the progress already made. This should be complemented by further steps to develop the FX market, improve FX risk management, and modernize the monetary policy framework.
view the IMF Working Paper-China's Evolving Exchange Rate Regime
Source: IMF
BetaShares-Market Trends: March 2019
March 6, 2019--Major Asset Classes*-Oz equities shine
Australian equities were the best performing of our seven major asset classes in February, with good gains across several sectors. Relief that the Hayne Royal Commission report recommendations were not as bad as feared for banks helped the financial sector, while growing talk of lower local interest rates, stronger commodity prices and the weaker $A helped both consumer and resource stocks.
Global stocks also continued their "V-shaped" recovery from late last year, helped by growing hopes with regards to US-China trade talks and dovish rhetoric from the US Federal Reserve. While a range of global growth indicators have slowed, overall growth is still holding up-especially in the US.
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Source: BetaShares
China GDP overstated by 12%, new research says from Financial Times China GDP overstated by 12%, new research says
March 6, 2019--Beijing statisticians 'do not have capacity' to correct inflated local figures
China's economy is around 12 per cent smaller than official figures indicate' and its real growth has been overstated by around 2 percentage...
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Source: FT.com
Fostering Competition in the Philippines: The Challenge of Restrictive Regulation
March 4, 2019--KEY FINDINGS
The Philippines' economic outlook remains strong. Nevertheless, limited competition in key economic sectors has been consistently identified as a constraint to the creation of more and better jobs and faster poverty alleviation.
Market competition in sectors critical for firms to enter and thrive is limited, stemming from unequal and discretionary application of policies and overly-restrictive regulations.
Data show that the Philippine economy is more concentrated than other countries in the region, with a higher proportion of monopoly, duopoly, and oligopoly markets.
view the World Bank Fostering Competition in the Philippines : The Challenge of Restrictive Regulations report
Source: World Bank
China warns of 'tough struggle' as it cuts growth target to lowest since 1990
March 4, 2019--China has set its lowest growth target in nearly three decades as premier Li Keqiang warned of "tough" challenges facing the world's second-largest economy.
He set the country's growth at 6.0 to 6.5%, down from a target of 6.5% last year. In 1990, growth sank to 3.9% because of international sanctions sparked by the Tiananmen square protests. Growth in 2018 was 6.6%, the slowest rate since 1990.<>view more
Source: theguardian.com
Survey: China factory activity sinks to 3-year low
February 28, 2019--Chinese manufacturing activity fell to a three-year low in February amid a tariff battle with Washington and weak global demand, a survey showed Thursday.
The monthly purchasing managers' index by the government statistics bureau and an industry group fell 0.3 points to 49.2 on a 100--point scale on which numbers below 50 indicate activity contracting. That was the lowest level since February 2016.
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Source: AP
Why quality pays in late-cycle periods
February 27, 2019--History suggests that so-called "quality" companies, i.e. those with a high return on equity (or "ROE"), tend to be able to produce market-beating shareholder returns over time.
As this note details, moreover, quality companies have tended to especially outperform in "late-cycle" market periods, as investors have tended to gravitate toward companies with strong balance sheets and durable profitability.
Factor investing and the case for quality
So-called "factor investing" is an increasingly popular rules-based strategy that aims to select companies likely to outperform the broader market over time. Factors are identified corporate characteristics that have tended to be associated with share market outperformance-either over time and/or at least at different stages of the market cycle.
Popular factors include:
Momentum-companies displaying relatively strong share price performance over recent times.
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Source: BetaShares
China's strategy: Growth, alliances, and tech acquisition
February 27, 2019--Despite the pause in the US-China trade war, the US and China are strategic competitors, and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. China realizes that there is little room to settle long-term disputes and, as a result has shifted towards a strategy that focuses on sustaining growth at any cost, expanding alliances, and advancing its technology.
The truce agreed to by China and the US at the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires does not change the US' ultimate goal to contain China. The reason is straightforward: the US and China have become strategic competitors and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future, leaving little room to settle any long-term disputes.
China's recognition of the structural features of the US-led trade war has also brought about a drastic change in its response to US policy. From tit-for-tat tactics based on retaliatory measures on trade, China has shifted to a three-pronged strategy: sustaining domestic growth at any cost, finding alliances externally, and accelerating China's technological capacity.
First and foremost, China needs to cushion the deceleration in economic growth, especially after deceleration intensified in 2018 following the US-led trade war. So far, 2018 has seen an easing in monetary policy and a half-hearted attempt at a fiscal stimulus, but those have clearly not been enough to stop economic deceleration.
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Source: bruegel.org
Shenzhen's economy surpasses Hong Kong for the first time
February 26, 2019--Hong Kong Q4 GDP growth slows to near 3-year low amid "external pressures"
Shenzhen's economy surpassed that of Hong Kong for the first time in 2018, drawing a line under the former colony's economic malaise as its dynamic rival across the border in mainland China continues to draw the attention of domestic and international investors.
Economic growth in Hong Kong slowed to its lowest in almost three years in the final three months of 2018, the city's finance secretary said in his annual budget on Wednesday, citing "mounting external pressures".
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Source: FT.com
Boosting Financial Protection Against Natural Disasters is Critical for Economies in Central Asia
February 26, 2019--The economies of Central Asia must significantly increase financial protection against natural disasters and consolidate efforts to effectively manage disaster risks, said experts at a Regional Forum on Disaster Risk Financing in Almaty today. Policymakers and disaster risk management experts from five Central Asian countries discussed ways to improve financial protection, including which financing instruments to use, in the context of rising challenges brought about by climate change.
Central Asia is among the world's most disaster-prone regions. Earthquakes, floods, landslides, extreme weather events and other natural disasters occur almost every year across the region.
In the past three decades, natural disasters have affected over 10 million people throughout the region and caused economic losses of almost $2.5 billion.
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Source: World Bank
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