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China's Real Estate Sector: Managing the Medium-Term Slowdown
February 2, 2024--Accelerated cleanup of distressed developers and other policies will help smooth the path to a smaller, more sustainable role in the economy
Real estate has long been important for China's economy, driving its rapid growth in recent decades and accounting for as much as 20 percent of activity.
This reliance has, however, been accompanied by the buildup of significant risks.
Home prices became significantly stretched relative to household incomes in the decade before the pandemic, in part because consumers preferred to invest their considerable savings in real estate given the scarcity of attractive alternative savings options. Expectations of continued increases in home and land prices allowed property developers to borrow rapidly, with land sales providing crucial revenue for local governments.
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Source: imf.org
IMF Staff Country Report-Thailand: 2023 Article IV Consultation
January 30, 2024--Thailand's economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and multiple shocks in 2022 is continuing, amid elevated uncertainty.
Growth is projected at 2.5 percent in 2023, broadly on par with 2022, while inflation is expected to remain well-within the authorities' target range.
Policies have gradually normalized to support growth and financial stability while protecting the population from the high inflation, but there is limited space to absorb new shocks. Heightened global uncertainty, with downside risks prevailing, puts an extra premium on prudent macroeconomic management.
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Source: imf.org
'Snowball' derivatives feed China's stock market avalanche
January 23, 2024--China's plunging stock market is leading to losses on billions of dollars worth of derivatives linked to the country's equity indexes, forcing a vicious cycle of selling in stocks and futures contracts as market participants manage their risks.
Stock markets in Hong Kong and in mainland China plunged on Monday, extending a long spell of weakness driven by an exit of foreign investors alarmed by China's wobbly economy and a lack of stimulus measures.
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Source: reuters.com
Homegrown asset managers grab limelight in Asia ETF boom
January 19, 2024---ChinaAMC, E Fund and Taiwan’s Yuanta have been among the biggest beneficiaries in the Asia-Pacific
Double-digit growth in exchange traded fund assets across many Asia-Pacific markets last year helped a handful of local fund firms strengthen their position as market leaders.
Taiwan, South Korea and China stood out as the fastest-growing ETF markets in the Asia-Pacific region during the first nine months of 2023, with ETF asset growth rates of between 26 per cent and 31 per cent, Broadridge data shows.
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Source: ft.com
China's $6.3 Trillion Stock Selloff Is Getting Uglier by the Day
January 19, 2024---Property sector's slump and geopolitical risks are negatives
China's valuation discount to India hit a record this week
Chinese stocks just capped another dismal week, with a gauge of mainland firms listed in Hong Kong languishing at the bottom of global equity index rankings for the year so far.
Grim milestones have kept piling up in recent days: Tokyo has overtaken
Shanghai as Asia's biggest equity market, while India's valuation premium over China has hit a record. Locally, a meltdown in Chinese shares is wreaking havoc on the nation's asset management industry, pushing mutual fund closures to a five-year high.
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Source: bloomberg.com
China's Economy Grew 5.2% in 2023, Chinese Premier Li Qiang Says
January 16, 2024--The National Statistics Bureau is due to publish 2023 growth figures on Wednesday
China's economy grew around 5.2% in 2023, Chinese Premier Li Qiang said Tuesday, a day before the country's statistics agency is due to release full-year growth figures.
"Last year in 2023, the Chinese economy rebounded and moved upward, with an estimated growth of around 5.2%, higher than the around 5% target set at the beginning of last year," Li said during an address at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
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Source: wsj.com
China's economy faces growing deflationary pressures as prices extend fall
January 12, 2024--Dec CPI fell year-on-year
CPI in 2023 was 0.2%, compared with around 3% government target
Dec PPI was down from a year earlier, steeper than expectation
China's consumer prices declined for a third month in December while factory-gate prices extended their prolonged slide, highlighting persistent deflationary pressures in an economy struggling to mount a solid recovery.
The consumer price index (CPI) shed 0.3% in December from a year earlier, and was up 0.1% month-on-month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Friday. November's index dropped 0.5% in annual and monthly terms.
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Source: reuters.com
South Korea Watchdog Intensifies Crackdown on China-Linked Notes
January 7, 2024--Regulators to start an investigation into 12 banks and brokers
Authorities unsure if investors understood the product: FSS
South Korea's regulator is launching a wider probe into local banks and brokers which sold exotic notes linked to Chinese stocks amid concerns that the securities may saddle investors with heavy losses.
Authorities will start investigating 12 institutions on Monday to determine if there was any wrongdoing over the sale of equity-linked securities that are tied to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, according to a statement from the Financial Supervisory Service. The biggest sellers among the firms to be probed are KB Kookmin Bank and Korea Investment & Securities Co., it added.
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Source: bloomberg.com
IMF Staff Country Report-IMF Executive Board Concludes 2023 Article IV Consultation
with India
December 15, 2023--India's economy showed robust growth over the past year. Headline inflation has, on average,
moderated although it remains volatile. Employment has surpassed the pre pandemic level and, while the informal sector continues to dominate, formalization has progressed.
The financial sector has been resilient-strongest in several years-and largely unaffected by
global financial stress in early 2023.
The current account deficit in FY2022/23 widened as the post-pandemic recovery of domestic demand and transitory external shocks outweighed the impact of robust services exports and proactive diversification of critical oil imports. While the budget deficit has eased, public debt remains elevated and fiscal buffers need to be rebuilt. Globally, India's 2023 G20 presidency has demonstrated the country's important role in advancing multilateral policy priorities.
Growth is expected to remain strong, supported by macroeconomic and financial stability.
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Source: imf.org
Thai Economy to Recover in 2024 Driven by Tourism, Exports Recovery
December 14, 2023---Carbon pricing critical for achieving climate objectives
Thailand's economic growth is projected to pick up to 3.2% in 2024 from 2.5% this year, supported by a recovery in tourism and goods exports and sustained private consumption, the World Bank said in its semi-annual Thailand Economic Monitor, launched today.
Growth in 2023 was dampened by a contraction in goods exports as well as ongoing fiscal consolidation, according to the report. The economy is projected to expand at a more moderate 3.1% in 2025.
Headline inflation is projected to slow to 1.1% in 2024 due to low energy prices. However, food prices are expected to increase.
Thailand's planned digital wallet program, potentially amounting to 2.7 percent of GDP, could boost near-term growth further by 0.5 to 1 percentage point over the two-year period in 2024 and 2025 if implemented. As a result, the fiscal deficit may increase to 4% to 5% of GDP, while public debt may reach 65% to 66% of GDP.
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Source: worldbank.org
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