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Growth in Africa Under Peace and Market Reforms-IMF Working Paper
February 23, 2011-- Economic stagnation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has led several economists to question the region’s ability to attain sustained economic growth, some of them arguing for the need to shift away from natural resource - based exports.
Yet, we find that low growth has not been common to all SSA countries and that those that achieved political stability and significantly liberalized their economies experienced high growth in income per capita, as high as ASEAN-5 countries. This group of SSA countries attained high growth while maintaining their specialization in natural resource exports. Our analysis also rejects the hypothesis of reverse causality: that good growth performance allowed countries to attain political stability or liberalize their economies.
view Growth in Africa Under Peace and Market Reforms-IMF Working paper
Source: IMF
Bonds weaker on geopolitical tensions
February 22, 2011--South African bonds were weaker in late trade on Tuesday amid ongoing political tensions in the Middle East and north Africa which have caused oil prices to soar.
A recovery in the rand however saw the local gilts off the session's worst levels.
By 15:46, the benchmark R157 bond was bid at 7.750% from its previous close of 7.675%, while the R207 was bid at 8.490% from its previous close of 8.430%.
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Source: FIN24
JSE falls on profit taking, oil
February 22, 2011--The JSE shaved off in excess of 360 points at its close on Tuesday amid profit taking, while political unrest in north Africa continues to plague the oil price.
At the close, the JSE all share index was 1.10% lower, with platinum miners falling 1.45%, gold counters eased 1.64% and resources declined 0.63%. Banks lost 1.24%, financials were down 1.23% and industrials dropped 1.53%.
The rand was bid at 7.13 to the dollar from 7.15 at the JSE's close on Monday.
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Source: FIN24
Bonds mixed in subdued trade
February 21, 2011--South African bonds were mixed in quiet late trade on Monday, with little in the way of action to give the market direction as it bides time ahead of key local data due this week.
Tuesday sees the release of the fourth-quarter 2010 GDP by Stats SA, while finance minister Pravin Gordhan will deliver his Budget speech in Parliament on Wednesday. Stats SA will also release producer price inflation (PPI) on Thursday.
By 15:50, the benchmark R157 bond was trading at 7.550% from its previous close of 7.680%, while the R207 was at 8.435% from its previous close of 8.400%. The R186 was bid at 8.665% from 8.620%.
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Source: FIN24
Commodities fuel JSE's momentum
February 21, 2011-- The JSE added 292 points on Monday, pushed higher by commodity stocks, and gold in particular, as investors continue to keep a watchful eye on political uncertainties in the Middle East and north Africa.
At the close, the JSE all-share index was 0.90% firmer, with gold counters up 3.92% and resources 1.3% better off. Platinum miners added 0.90%. Banks rose 0.91%, financials swelled 0.61% and industrials firmed 0.63%.
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Source: FIN24
Bonds tick firmer on rand
February 18, 2011--South African bonds were mostly firmer in late trade on Friday on the back of a stronger currency. Earlier in the day, a local trader said the R186s were weaker as a result of a fund reducing long-end exposure going into Budget next week.
Market players are keenly awaiting Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan's Budget speech on February 23. By 15:50, the benchmark R157 bond was trading at 7.680% from its previous close of 7.705%, while the R207 was trading at 8.400% from its previous close of 8.425%. The R186 was trading at 8.630% from 8.620%.
The rand was bid at 7.1618 to the dollar from its previous close of 7.1714.
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Source: FIN24
Resources pull on JSE
February 18, 2011--The JSE ended the week on a low key note on Friday as resources, which fell on profit-taking and the strong rand, dragged down the overall market.
At the close, the JSE all-share index was down 0.64%, with resources sliding 1.33%. But gold counters advanced 1.62% and platinum miners rose 0.79%. Banks fell 0.32% and financials lost 0.40%, while industrials were flat.
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Source: FIN24
SA formally joins the BRIC
February 18, 2011-- India’s finance minister said on Friday South Africa was being brought in alongside his country, China, Brazil and Russia as part of the group of developing economies hitherto known as the BRIC club.
“Today South Africa has been formally inducted into the BRIC grouping. From now on it will be the BRICS and this will be a key south-south global forum,” said Pranab Mukherjee, who was in Paris for talks with other finance ministers.
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Source: FIN24
IMF Executive Board Concludes 2010 Article IV Consultation with Nigeria
February 17, 2011--On February 11, 2011, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Nigeria.1
Background
Nigeria has weathered the global economic recession and its own domestic banking crisis reasonably well. Economic growth in the first half of 2010 remained above 7½ percent and is expected to reach about 8½ percent for the whole year on the back of a recovery in oil production and continued strong growth in other sectors.
However, inflation has been stuck in the low double digits for the past two years and foreign reserves have been falling as the Central Bank of Nigeria has focused on maintaining exchange rate stability and low interest rates.
The fiscal stimulus intensified in 2010, notwithstanding the already solid growth performance and high inflation. After rising by 10 percent in 2009, consolidated public spending increased by 37 percent in 2010. The non-oil primary deficit has increased by 5 percentage points to 32 percent of non-oil GDP. Despite world oil prices well in excess of the budget benchmark price, the government spent all current oil revenues and drew on savings in the Excess Crude Account, at a time when stabilization called for a rebuilding of buffers. Despite high inflation, the CBN reduced the rate on its standing deposit facility. In response to pressure on the currency, the CBN sold reserves rather than raise interest rate or let the exchange rate depreciate. The CBN recently raised interest rates, but short-term real interest rates remain negative.
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Source: IMF
Bonds stay firm on rand
February 17, 2011--South African bonds remained firm in late trade on Thursday, on the back of a strong currency and local and foreign demand.
By 15:50, the benchmark R157 bond was trading at 7.720% from its previous close of 7.770%, while the R207 was trading at 8.470% from its previous close of 8.460%. The R186 was trading at 8.630% from 8.635%.
The rand was bid at 7.2234 to the dollar from its previous close of 7.2433.
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Source: FIN24
