A Few White Papers
you are currently viewing::IMF Working Paper-Trade Policy Shocks and Corporate Valuations-Disentangling Trade and Uncertainty ChannelsApril 10, 2026-Summary Firms with greater U.S. trade exposure and higher uncertainty sensitivity experienced the sharpest valuation declines following the initial tariff announcement on April 2- but also the strongest rebounds after the announced pause and subsequent trade agreements. Both channels are economically meaningful and of similar magnitude- and jointly account for a substantial share of the market response. Together- they represent about 20 percent of the stock-price decline among tradable firms after April 2 and about 10 percent of the rebound after trade agreements. Overall- the findings show that trade policy affects firms not only through expected tariff costs- but also by reshaping policy predictability in ways that affect firms' investment incentives. Source: imf.org |
Gold in Central Bank Reserves: Strategic Considerations, Market Risks, and Practical Guidance
July 9, 2026-Gold has re-emerged as a prominent component of central bank reserves, largely reflecting valuation gains from higher gold prices rather than large-scale accumulation. This Note assesses gold's role from a reserve management perspective, emphasizing that while gold carries no credit risk and may support long-term balance-sheet resilience, it is highly volatile, offers only conditional hedging and diversification benefits, and is ill-suited to the liquidity tranche of reserves.
