A Few White Papers
you are currently viewing::IMF Working Paper-Trade Policy Shocks and Corporate Valuations-Disentangling Trade and Uncertainty ChannelsApril 10, 2026-Summary Firms with greater U.S. trade exposure and higher uncertainty sensitivity experienced the sharpest valuation declines following the initial tariff announcement on April 2- but also the strongest rebounds after the announced pause and subsequent trade agreements. Both channels are economically meaningful and of similar magnitude- and jointly account for a substantial share of the market response. Together- they represent about 20 percent of the stock-price decline among tradable firms after April 2 and about 10 percent of the rebound after trade agreements. Overall- the findings show that trade policy affects firms not only through expected tariff costs- but also by reshaping policy predictability in ways that affect firms' investment incentives. Source: imf.org |
IMF Working Paper Fiscal-monetary Interactions: The Role of Debt Maturity
October 13, 2026-Summary
This paper examines how the maturity structure of sovereign debt shapes fiscal-monetary interactions in the United States. Using exogenous monetary policy shocks and nonlinear local projections, we show that debt maturity influences both the fiscal consequences of monetary tightening and its macroeconomic transmission.
IMF Working Paper-Fear and Shortages: Identifying Geopolitical Risk and Supply Disruptions in Energy Markets
October 12, 2026-Summary
This paper proposes a new high-frequency structural vector autoregression model that can disentangle the drivers of oil and natural gas prices in real time. In particular, it separately identifies actual supply disruptions from geopolitical-risk shocks that raise expectations of future supply shortfalls. Local projection analysis shows that macroeconomic effects differ across shocks.
IMF Working Paper-International Stablecoin Flows, Capital Controls and Currency Crises
October 2, 2026--Summary
This paper constructs a country-level panel of estimated international stablecoin flows, covering 188 countries, totaling $21.4 trillion in gross flows between 2018 and 2025. Activity is disproportionately concentrated in emerging markets and developing economies, which hold three quarters of stablecoins.
OECD- Critical minerals in Africa-A regional overview
October 1, 2026-Mobilising finance at scale is essential to halt and reverse biodiversity loss. Drawing on currently available data, this paper estimates global biodiversity finance from all sources-public and private, domestic and international. The paper also identifies opportunities to improve the consistency, international comparability, coverage and transparency of biodiversity finance data across countries.
IMF Working Paper-Too Much Yet Not Enough: Housing Segmentation and Household Consumption in China
September 18, 2026--Summary
China's urban housing system is structurally segmented: market-based residential housing accounts for only about 40 percent of occupied urban dwellings, with the remainder split between rental and legacy housing acquired outside the market. Using 2000-2020 Population Censuses and the 2019 China Household Finance Survey, this paper documents that housing tenure is systematically associated with distinct household consumption patterns.
IMF Working Paper-How Digital Lending Shapes Bank Risk and Competition: Evidence from an Emerging Economy
September 18, 2026--Summary
This paper examines the effect of alternative digital lending-defined as digital credit provision by non‑bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs)-on bank and systemic risk taking and competition. The paper focuses on Sociedades Financieras Populares (SOFIPOs) which constitute a regulated and well‑documented NBFI segment allowing an empirical assessment of the relationship between digital non-bank lending expansion and bank outcomes.
IMF Working Paper-Macroeconomics of War and Recovery
September 4, 2026--Summary
This paper studies the macroeconomic dynamics of conflicts and post-conflict recovery using a newly assembled global dataset covering 194 countries, including 170 conflict onsets and 158 conflict terminations, over the period 1946-2024. Using a local-projection difference-in-differences framework complemented by geocoded firm-level evidence, we trace the evolution of macroeconomic aggregates around conflict onset and termination.
IMF Working Paper-Demand for Dollars: Evidence from Survey Expectations
September 4, 2026--Summary
We study the determinants of US dollar demand across market participants and traded instruments using survey-based exchange rate and macroeconomic expectations. To empirically establish the relevance of survey-based expectations for currency flows, we leverage granular foreign exchange trading data and present three main findings.
