AI to boost trade by nearly 40% by 2040 if gaps are bridged, World Trade Report 2025 finds

September 17, 2025-The 2025 edition of the World Trade Report reveals that, with the right enabling policies, artificial intelligence (AI) could boost the value of cross-border flows of goods and services by nearly 40% by 2040 thanks to productivity gains and lower trade costs.

However, the flagship publication by the WTO Secretariat notes that for AI and trade to contribute to inclusive growth-with benefits shared widely- policies need to be in place to bridge the digital divide, invest in workforce skills, and maintain an open and predictable trading environment.

According to the report, AI could lead to significant increases in trade and GDP by 2040, with global trade projected to rise by 34-37% across different scenarios based on different degrees of policy and technological catch-up between low-, middle- and high-income economies. Global GDP could meanwhile see a 12-13% increase across different scenarios. Trade, in turn, can be a powerful enabler of inclusive AI -supported growth by helping economies access AI-enabling goods, such as raw materials, semiconductors and intermediate inputs. The WTO report estimates that global trade in these goods totalled USD 2.3 trillion in 2023.

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Source: World Trade Organization (WTO)