ESG and Of Interest News
IMF Working Papers-When Will Global Gender Gaps Close?
September 15, 2023--Summary:
On the current pace of reforms, global gender gaps are estimated to close, using deterministic (linear or log-linear) trends, over the next three centuries. This means that many women will likely not be able to fully use their abilities and talents, to the detriment of societies, for a long time. Yet this paper shows that, absent a significant step up in policy efforts, gender gaps may in fact never close.
Using Markov chains, a common approach in macroeconomics, this paper analyzes the dynamics of the cross-country distribution of the gender gap in labor force participation. This methodology does not impose strong restrictions on the data, allowing for episodes of progress as well as regress by countries on gender inequality. Based on the experience of the past three decades, the analysis predicts a further narrowing of gender gaps over time. But the long-run distribution of gender gaps in labor force participation features a substantial share of countries with persistently large gaps, implying that-absent a strengthened and systematic policy effort-some of the current misallocation of women's talents and abilities could persist perpetually.
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Source: imf.org
Droughts and Deficits-The Global Impacts of Droughts on Economic Growth
September 12, 2023--Across much of the world, water deficits are expected to become the new normal. With rising human populations and growing prosperity, water demand is growing exponentially.
Pollution, industrial development, agricultural intensification, land use change, and other damaging human activities are degrading and diminishing watersheds, rivers, and lakes.
The result is a water deficit, with stresses that will spread to new regions of the world and worsen in areas where water is already scarce.
Climate change is also expected to increase the risk of droughts and desertification in many at-risk regions of the world, particularly those with rapid population growth, vulnerable groups and food security challenges.
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Source: worldbank.org
Generational Shift: New Global Poll Reveals Large Minorities of Young People Lack Faith in Democracy to Deliver on Their Priorities
September 11, 2023--The Open Society Barometer, an annual global survey from the Open Society Foundations that launched today, finds that young people around the world (Generation Z and millennials) hold the least faith in democracy of any age group, presenting a grave threat to its future. Over a third (35 percent) of respondents in the 18-35 age group were supportive of a strong leader who does away with legislatures and elections.
The report, Open Society Barometer: Can Democracy Deliver?, finds that the concept of democracy remains widely popular across every region of the globe, with 86 percent saying that they would prefer to live in a democratic state. There is also widespread disbelief that authoritarian states can deliver more effectively than democracies on priorities both nationally and in global forums.
Topping the list of such priorities, people worry most about poverty and inequality (20 percent), climate change (20 percent), and corruption (18 percent). Potentially indicating a lack of faith that governments are addressing such needs, around a third of respondents on average distrust politicians to work in their best interests.
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Source: opensocietyfoundations.org
What You Need to Know About Climate Change and Drought
September 11, 2023--Are climate change and drought connected? We asked Richard Damania, the World Bank's Chief Economist for Sustainable Development, and two experts from the Bank's Sustainable Development unit: Senior Economist Esha Zaveri and Senior Climate Change Specialist Nathan Engle. The three are authors of the paper, Droughts and Deficits: Summary Evidence of the Global Impact on Economic Growth.
Is drought increasing and is climate change to blame?
Water deficits are fast becoming the new normal. Over the last half century, extreme "dry rainfall shocks"- i.e., below-average rainfall - have increased 233% in certain regions. A dry shock that is one standard deviation from the norm is normally a rare event that could be expected to include 15 of the driest episodes in a century. A dry shock that is two standard deviations from the norm is even rarer and includes the driest 2.5 years in a century. Such dry episodes should be intermittent, but they are occurring more frequently. At the same time, areas with above-average rainfall are in decline.
Our empirical observations are consistent with other scientific projections that by the late 21st century the land area and population facing extreme droughts could more than double globally. While projections of future rainfall are highly uncertain, climate change models are unanimous that rainfall will become more erratic and extreme with rising temperatures.
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Source: worldbank.org
IMF Working Paper-Cross-Border Risks of a Global Economy in Mid-Transition
September 8, 2023--Summary:
This paper analyzes the cross-border risks that could result from a decarbonization of the world economy. We develop a typology of cross-border risks and their respective channels.
Our qualitative and quantitative scenario analysis suggests that the mid-transition-a period during which fossil-fuel and low-carbon energy systems co-exist and transform at a rapid pace -could have profound stability and resilience implications for global trade and the international financial system.
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Source: imf.org
Analysis: Why trash in space is a major problem with no clear fix
September 3, 2023--There's a lot of trash on the Moon right now - including nearly 100 bags of human waste-and with countries around the globe traveling to the Moon, there’s going to be a lot more, both on the lunar surface and in Earth's orbit.
In August 2023, Russia's Luna-25 probe crashed into the Moon's surface, while India's Chandrayann-3 mission successfully landed in the southern polar region, making India the fourth country to land on the Moon.
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Source: pbs.org
Protectionism Is Failing to Achieve Its Goals and Threatens the Future of Critical Industries
August 29, 2023--STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Growing protectionism, trade tensions, and geopolitical challenges are raising concerns about the future of globalization.
Global trade has nevertheless proven resilient in the face of multiple shocks, and many countries continue to implement liberalizing policies alongside more restrictive ones.
For many technology and innovation-intensive industries, the costs and risks of severing critical global linkages would be substantial.
Since 1990, global trade has increased incomes by 24 percent worldwide, and by 50 percent for the poorest 40 percent of the population. This growth has lifted more than 1 billion people out of poverty. Trade has also played a pivotal role in shaping the global economy and promoting positive socioeconomic outcomes.
Today, however, protectionist measures are on the rise. And trade tensions and geopolitical challenges are raising concerns about the trajectory of globalization.
As a result, deglobalization-the process of reducing global economic interdependence-has been at the forefront of current policy discussions.
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Source: worldbank.org
The High Cost of Global Economic Fragmentation
August 28, 2023--Growing trade restrictions may reverse economic integration and undermine the cooperation needed to protect against new shocks and address global challenges
In a shock-prone world, economies must be more resilient-individually and collectively.
Cooperation is critical, but greater protectionism could lead to fragmentation, and even split nations into rival blocs just as fresh shocks expose the global economy's fragility.
While estimates of the cost of fragmentation vary, greater international trade restrictions could reduce global economic output by as much as 7 percent over the long term, or about $7.4 trillion in today's dollars. That's equivalent to the combined size of the French and German economies, and three times sub-Saharan Africa's annual output.
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Source: imf.org
IMF Fintech Note-Generative Artificial Intelligence in Finance: Risk Considerations
August 22, 2023--August 22, 2023--Summary:
In recent years, technological advances and competitive pressures have fueled rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in the financial sector, and this adoption is set to accelerate with the recent emergence of generative AI (GenAI). GenAI is a significant leap forward in AI technology that enhances its utility for financial institutions that have been quick at adapting it to a broad range of applications.
However, there are risks inherent in the AI technology and its application in the financial sector, including embedded bias, privacy concerns, outcome opaqueness, performance robustness, unique cyberthreats, and the potential for creating new sources and transmission channels of systemic risks.
GenAI could aggravate some of these risks and bring about new types or risks as well, including for financial sector stability. This paper provides early insights into GenAI's inherent risks and their potential impact on the financial sector.
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Source: imf.org
Global Seaweed New and Emerging Markets Report 2023
August 16, 2023--With its ability to sink carbon, sustain marine biodiversity, employ women, and unlock value chains, seaweed farming demonstrates how development, climate, and nature work together to generate value and uplift communities. Seaweed farming can help build a world free of poverty on a livable planet and has enormous growth potential.
The Global Seaweed New and Emerging Markets Report 2023 has identified ten global seaweed markets with the potential to grow by an additional USD 11.8 billion by 2030. Yet, much of the seaweed sector's value remains untapped-it has clear growth potential beyond its current markets.
Today, most farmed seaweed is used for direct human consumption, as fresh feed in aquaculture, or as hydrocolloids. However, seaweed-farmed products may be able to displace fossil fuels in sectors such as fabrics and plastics; can provide ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration and nitrogen cycling; and can generate socioeconomic benefits in fragile coastal communities. Further, the market is currently dominated by a handful of Asian countries, which produce 98 percent of farmed seaweed by volume globally. Opportunities for growth in new regions and applications are high.
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Source: worldbank.org
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