How Animal Spirits Affect the Economy
March 3, 2025—Viral narratives could be the missing link between emotions and economic fluctuations
Storytelling is central to how we interpret economic events. We recall economic history through haunting images of anxious crowds waiting to take money out of banks during the Great Depression or dejected office workers carrying cardboard boxes out of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
Trump's latest global tariffs, announced on a self-proclaimed 'Liberation Day', will likely cause sharp short-term trade declines-and a significant surge in inflation for the US
March 3, 2025—On 2 April 2025 - his self-proclaimed 'Liberation Day' - President Donald Trump once again announced new tariffs. This time, all US trade partners will face a minimum 'discounted reciprocal tariff' of 10%. For countries with trade surpluses deemed guilty of 'currency manipulation and trade barriers', tariffs could rise to nearly 50%. Southeast Asian export-driven economies will particularly be affected. Major trading partners-such as China (34%), the EU (20%) and Japan (24%)-will face intermediate rates, although they are extremely high by historical standards.
WTO and OECD release expanded dataset on trade in services covering over 200 economiess
February 17, 2025-New data on bilateral trade in services covering over 200 economies from 2005 to 2023 was released by the WTO and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on 17 February.
OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index
Policy Trends up to 2025
February 12, 2025- Abstract
The OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI) provides annually updated, comparable information on regulations affecting trade in services across 51 countries and 22 sectors from 2014 to 2024.
The Economic Costs of Temperature Uncertainty
January 24, 2025--Summary
Beyond its environmental damage, climate change is predicted to produce significant economic costs. Combining novel high-frequency geospatial temperature data from satellites with measures of economic activity for the universe of US listed firms, this article examines a potentially important channel through which global warming can lead to economic costs: temperature uncertainty.