Global ETF News Older than One Year
The Bank for International Settlements warned on Sunday that rising government debt levels amid a number of major elections this year could roil global financial markets
June 30, 2024--Dubbed the central bankers' central bank, the BIS said the world economy was on course for the "smooth landing" that many economists doubted when interest rates shot up, but said policymakers, especially politicians, needed to be careful.
Global government debt is already at record levels and elections ranging from the U.S. presidential vote in November, through recent polls in Mexico and South Africa, to votes in France and Britain in the coming week, all carry risks.
Source: money.usnews.com
BIS Annual Economic Report 2024
June 30, 2024--Introduction
So far, so good. The world economy appears to be finally leaving behind the legacy of the Covid-19 pandemic and the commodity price shock of the war in Ukraine. The worst fears did not materialise. On balance, globally, inflation is continuing to decline towards targets, economic activity and the financial system have proved remarkably resilient, and both professional forecasters and financial market participants see a smooth landing ahead.
This was by no means a given a year ago. It is a great outcome.
Still, there is a "but". Challenges remain. The recent stickiness of inflation in some key jurisdictions reminds us that central banks' job is not yet done. Financial vulnerabilities have not gone away. Fragile fiscal positions cast a shadow as far as the eye can see. Subdued productivity growth clouds economic prospects. Beyond the near term, laying a more solid foundation for the future is as difficult as ever. It could not be otherwise: it is an arduous task that requires a long-term view, courage and perseverance.
Source: bis.org
G20 GDP growth picks up a little in the first quarter of 2024
June 12, 2024--Gross domestic product (GDP) in the G20 area grew by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2024 according to provisional estimates, slightly up from 0.7% in the previous quarter.
The economic performance of the G20 area was mainly driven by China and India in Q1 2024.[1] Both countries, along with Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Korea and Indonesia recorded higher GDP growth than the G20 as a whole.
Turkiye saw the highest growth at 2.4%, followed by India (1.9%), China (1.6%), Saudi Arabia (1.4%), Korea (1.3%) and Indonesia (1.2%). Growth recovered in Saudi Arabia following a contraction of 0.6% in Q4 2023. The GDP growth rate increased in China, Korea and Turkiye in Q1 compared with Q4, but fell slightly in India and Indonesia.
The remaining G20 countries experienced weaker growth than the G20 as a whole in Q1 2024. The United States saw a slowdown, with GDP growth dropping to 0.3% in Q1 from 0.8% in Q4 2023. The economy of Japan contracted by 0.5% in Q1, while South Africa experienced a contraction of 0.1%. On the other hand, Brazil, the United Kingdom and Germany recovered in Q1 after contractions in Q4, with growth reaching 0.8%, 0.6% and 0.2% respectively. Canada, Mexico and the European Union grew by 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.3% respectively in Q1 after zero growth in Q4.
Source: oecd.org
Bassanese Bites-Breather
May 26, 2024--Global markets-week in review
After four consecutive weekly gains, global equities took a breather last week with the S&P 500 inching ahead only 0.03%. Firm US service sector data and "high for longer" Fed rhetoric saw traders take profits in both the bond and equity markets after recent gains.
Probably the main highlight in a data-light week was the strength in the US services sector PMI. The S&P US service sector index blew past market expectations, rising to 54.4 from 51.1. Also concerning was a lift in input costs. The result ran counter to a run of recent softer reports for employment growth and retail sales. Overall, the US economy remains firm, though whether this necessarily implies inflation will prove stubbornly firm remains to be seen.
Source: betashares.com.au
ETFs shift from 'core' to 'satellite' in portfolios
May 23, 2024-- BBH survey indicates the funds are increasingly vehicles of choice for active strategies and tactical short-term use
Exchange traded funds are increasingly vehicles of choice for active strategies and for tactical short-term use, a new study reveals, underlining how much has changed from their buy-and-hold, broad market historical origins.
Actively managed ETFs that guarantee protection against losses, leveraged or inverse strategies that reset daily and cryptocurrency investments, topped the list of ETF strategies that appealed most to investors in the US, Europe, China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, according to the latest Brown Brothers Harriman survey of more than 300 institutional investors globally.
Source: ft.com
Amundi ETF Market Strategy-Weekly Pulse
May 17, 2024--Risk assets extended gains and hovered near record highs. A further deceleration in inflation revived hopes that both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) are heading closer to a pivot in monetary policy.
Treasuries rallied across the board and the US dollar weakened. Flows were primarily directed into government
bond exposures and high yield debt.
Japan and EM exposures were favoured within equities.
PREDICTABILITY WITH FIXED MATURITY
Navigating the ECB's future policy rates path:
The final inflation release for April indicated continued disinflation in the euro area, clearing the way for the
central bank to start cutting rates in June.
Source: amundi.com
ETF buying nearly halves in April as US rate cut hopes recede
May 9, 2024--Aversion to risk spurs sharp fall to equity ETFs while government bond ETF flows tick up
Investors pulled in their horns in April as diminishing prospects for near-term US interest rate cuts drove a broad aversion to risk, global data on exchange traded fund flows indicate.
However, there were still signs of animal spirits in some corners of the global market with solid demand for some cyclical assets, such as European and Japanese equities and emerging market debt.
Source: reuters.com
Global Commodity Prices Level Off, Hurting Prospects for Lower Inflation
April 25, 2024--Major flare-up in Middle-East conflict could stoke global inflation
Global commodity prices are leveling off after a steep descent that played a decisive role in whittling down overall inflation last year, which could make it harder for central banks to cut interest rates quickly, according to the World Bank's latest Commodity Markets Outlook. The report also finds that a major outbreak of conflict in the Middle East could halt the inflationary decline that has occurred over the past two years.
Between mid-2022 and mid-2023, global commodity prices plummeted by nearly 40%. This helped to drive most of the roughly 2-percentage-point reduction in global inflation between 2022 and 2023. Since mid-2023, however, the World Bank's index of commodity prices has remained essentially unchanged. Assuming no further flare-up in geopolitical tensions, the Bank's forecasts call for a decline of 3% in global commodity prices in 2024 and 4% in 2025. That pace will do little to subdue inflation that remains above central bank targets in most countries. It will keep commodity prices about 38% higher than they were on average in the five years before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Source: worldbank.org
China continues to dominate an expanded BRICS
April 12, 2024--In Brief
China's economic size and increasing assertiveness in foreign policy give it a dominant position in BRICS, which is reflected in intra-bloc trade flows and in the bloc's foreign policy positions. The future of BRICS is uncertain given its heavy dependence on China's economic future and the deteriorating sentiment towards China among its members. India's fast growth and increasing geopolitical heft also pose a challenge for the continuation of BRICS as a China-centric grouping.
The origins of BRICS -a bloc comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and, as of 2024, new members Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates -can be traced back to a 2001 publication by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill titled 'Building Better Global Economic BRICs'. O'Neill argued that Brazil, Russia, India and China were poised to play an increasingly significant role in the global economy.
His prediction was that by 2050, these countries would collectively account for 40 per cent of the world's economic output. In reality, from 2012 to 2022 China alone has accounted for around a quarter of global GDP growth, and the BRICS countries together contributed over 45 per cent.
Source: eastasiaforum.org
Trade growth likely to pick up in 2024 in spite of challenging environment
April 12, 2024--The latest edition of the WTO's "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" foresees a gradual recovery in world merchandise trade volume in 2024 and 2025. This follows a contraction in 2023 driven by the lingering effects of high energy prices and inflation in advanced economies, particularly Europe. So, what does our forecast indicate?
Specifically, we expect merchandise trade to grow by 2,6% in 2024 and 3,3% in 2025 after falling by 1,2% in 2023, However, there is a downside risk due to regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainty,
In value terms, merchandise trade fell 5% in 2023 to US$ 24,01 trillion but the decline was mostly offset by a 9% increase in commercial services trade, which reached around US$ 7,54 trillion, Total goods and services trade was only down 2%,
A particularly bright spot for services was the global exports of digitally delivered services, which reached US$ 4,25 trillion in 2023, up 9% year-on-year, accounting for 13,8% of world exports of goods and services,
Source: wto.org
