IMF-Global Financial Stability Report-Enhancing Resilience amid Uncertainty
April 22, 2025-Global financial stability risks have increased significantly, driven by tighter global financial conditions and heightened trade and geopolitical uncertainty. Against the heightened volatility of asset prices, Chapter 1 assesses that global financial stability risks have increased significantly.
This assessment is supported by three key forward-looking vulnerabilities: (i) valuations remain high in some key markets; (ii) some highly leveraged financial institutions and their nexus with banking systems; and (iii) risks of market turmoil and challenges to debt sustainability for highly indebted sovereigns.
Source: IMF.org
Fear and Hope: Bybit x Santiment Social Sentiment Report on OM Collapse and XPR ETF
April 18, 2025-Bybit, the world's second-argest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has released a comprehensive social sentiment analysis report in collaboration with crypto market intelligence platform Santiment, uncovering critical insights into two contrasting narratives currently shaping the crypto landscape: the unprecedented collapse of MANTRA's OM token and growing optimism surrounding potential XRP ETF approvals.
MANTRA's OM token experienced a catastrophic 90% price drop on Apr. 13, 2025, erasing over $5.4 billion in market cap. The project blamed it on forced liquidations by exchanges, while on-chain analytics revealed suspicious trading activity prior to the collapse.
Meanwhile, Teucrium's launch of the first US-based XRP ETF (ticker: XXRP) generated over $5 million in volume on its first trading day, reflecting rising institutional interest.
Source: Bybit
OECD-5 things you should know about international trade statistics
April 17, 2025--What are trade balances?
Put simply, a trade balance is the difference between an economy's exports and its imports over a given period. When exports are higher than imports, we see a trade surplus. When the opposite is true, i.e. when the value of imports exceeds the value of exports, then a trade deficit is recorded.
When someone thinks about international trade, chances are they're thinking about cross-border trade in goods.
According to recent WTO estimates1, goods worth over USD 24 trillion crossed at least one international border in 2024. These goods include agricultural products, raw materials, energy, and a broad range of manufactured goods such as machinery, transport equipment, electronics, and much more.
Cross-border trade in goods statistics are available at a high level of detail, so exports, imports and balances can be analysed for specific commodities between individual trading partners. Indeed, bilateral trade balances can look very different than the total balance of a country with the rest of the world, which is derived by aggregating the figures across all commodities and partners.
Of course, goods are only one component of international trade; services also play a crucial role. But before talking about services, let's dig deeper into some important methodological concepts.
Source: oecdstatistics.blog
Global trade faces setback amid rising tariffs
April 16, 2025-The WTO Secretariat's latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, issued today (16 April), comes at a time of growing uncertainty for the global economy- and with it, a sharp deterioration in the prospects for world trade.
Following a strong performance in 2024, global trade is now facing headwinds from a surge in tariffs and rising trade policy uncertainty.
The volume of world merchandise trade is projected to decline by 0.2 per cent in 2025- almost three percentage points lower than it would have been without the recent policy shifts. A modest recovery of 2.5 per cent is expected in 2026.
This marks a notable reversal from forecasts earlier this year, when WTO economists anticipated continued trade expansion, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions.
Source: WTO (World Trade Organization)
IEA-Oil Market Report-April 2025
April 15, 2025--Highlights
Global oil demand growth for 2025 has been revised down by 300 kb/d since last month's Report to 730 kb/d, as escalating trade tensions have negatively impacted the economic outlook. Growth is expected to slow further in 2026, to 690 kb/d, but risks to the forecasts remain rife given the fast-moving macro backdrop. The downgrade comes on the heels of robust oil consumption in 1Q25, up by 1.2 mb/d y-o-y-its strongest rate since 2023.
World oil supply rose by 590 kb/d to 103.6 mb/d in March, up 910 kb/d y-o-y, with non-OPEC+ leading both monthly and annual gains. OPEC+ will lift output targets by 411 kb/d in May, but the increase may be substantially lower given overproduction by some countries. Global supply growth for 2025 has been cut by 260 kb/d to 1.2 mb/d, due to a decrease in US and Venezuelan output. Production in 2026 is set to rise by 960 kb/d, with offshore projects taking the lead.
Global crude runs are forecast to average 83.2 mb/d this year, as demand growth expectations cut the projected annual increase by 230 kb/d to 340 kb/d. In 2026, throughputs are set to rise by 360 kb/d to 83.6 mb/d. Refining margins were mixed in March, with declines in the Atlantic Basin but gains for processing sour crude in Singapore. Weaker middle distillate cracks drove much of last month's decline in profitability.
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA)
How Rising Geopolitical Risks Weigh on Asset Prices
April 14, 2025--Heightened tensions can hurt stock markets, raise government borrowing costs, and pose risks to financial stability
Global geopolitical risks remain elevated, raising concerns about their potential impact on economic and financial stability.
Shocks such as wars, diplomatic tensions, or terrorism can disrupt cross-border trade and investment. This can hurt asset prices, affect financial institutions, and curtail lending to the private sector, weighing on economic activity and posing a threat to financial stability.
Such risks are challenging for investors to price due to their unique nature, rare occurrence, and uncertain duration and scope. This can lead to sharp market reactions when geopolitical shocks materialize.
Source: IMF
Investors lose $25bn in leveraged ETFs in sector's biggest meltdown
April 8, 2025-Risky funds drop almost a quarter of their value as Trump's trade war hits market
Investors lost $25.7bn in leveraged exchange traded funds late last week, in the biggest ever meltdown for risky funds that have drawn huge inflows in recent years from retail traders seeking quick returns.
The high-octane funds, which magnify the daily returns of individual stocks or indices by up to five times, lost almost a quarter of their value on Thursday and Friday as they were hit by Donald Trump's trade war and the unravelling of financial markets, according to calculations by FactSet.
Source: ft.com
The Ocean Economy to 2050
March 31, 2025-Abstract
The ocean economy has long been a powerful driver of global growth, creating jobs, fuelling development, and ensuring food security for millions worldwide. If the ocean economy were a country, it would be the fifth largest economy in the world. However, climate change, environmental degradation, lagging productivity, and slow digital transformation are intensifying pressures on marine ecosystems and economic potential.
Tackling these challenges requires bold, co-ordinated action, not only to safeguard marine ecosystems but to sustain the ocean economy as a source of prosperity for future generations.
The OECD report The Ocean Economy to 2050provides groundbreaking data, analysis, and insights to support policymakers in fostering a sustainable and resilient ocean economy. It explores potential pathways for the sector's development through 2050, emphasising the urgent need for science-based decision-making and improved ocean governance. The report underscores the need to phase out harmful practices and combat illicit activities-the so-called "dark ocean economy." It also highlights the critical role of transitioning to cleaner energy and harnessing digital technologies to mitigate environmental impacts, address climate change, and enhance the productivity of ocean
Source: oecd.org
WEF-2024 Global Retail Investor Outlook
March 25, 2025--Key insights
Global capital markets have undergone a sustained fundamental shift, increasingly integrating individual investors into the financial ecosystem. This transformation has revolutionized how markets operate, establishing more accessible pathways for individuals to participate in spaces traditionally reserved for institutional and professional investors.
The 2024 Global Retail Investor Outlook identified four key structural trends shaping the retail investing landscape:
1. Investors are becoming increasingly diverse across age, geography, gender and income, demonstrating earlier interest and engagement in markets. Younger generations learn and engage in capital markets earlier than previous generations. Overall, 30% of Gen Z began investing in university or early adulthood, compared to 15% of Millennials, 9% of Gen X and 6% of Baby Boomers.
2. Between 2021 and 2024, rising inflation eroded the purchasing power of disposable income, shifting investor focus to short-term goals. Market cycles and inflation can create uncertainty and constraint for individuals; despite stocks' potential as an inflation hedge, their volatility remains a deterrent. Across asset classes, 21% of investors avoid certain products due to unpredictability, and 40% of individuals choose not to invest because they are fearful of losing money in the market.
Source: World Economic Forum (WEF)
More Record-Breaking Growth Expected as Investors Lean on ETFs to Manage Global Uncertainty: BBH 2025 Global ETF Investor Survey
March 24, 2025--The ever-increasing demand for ETFs is fueled by investor appetite for liquidity, risk management, and diverse strategies.
Brown Brothers Harriman's 12th annual Global ETF Investor Survey of institutional investors, fund managers and financial advisors identifies a paradigm shift across the ETF landscape. The report reveals that a remarkable 95% of investors intend to increase their ETF allocations over the next 12 months, an increase from 82% in last year's survey.
This sentiment portends that investors will continue to utilize the flexibility of the ETF wrapper in the face of heightened volatility, by leveraging the wide range of asset classes and strategies that are now available in ETF form.
Additionally, nearly 30% of investors plan to re-allocate from both actively-managed and index-based mutual funds to ETFs, while 33% plan to shift their passive allocation (mutual funds and ETFs) to active ETFs over the next 12 months, underscoring continuing market trends.
Source: Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH)