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China Macro-A policy-driven economy
October 18, 2012--Once again, the 3Q GDP data has proved that the Chinese economy remains largely driven by policies. GDP in 3Q grew by 7.4%-the lowest growth seen for the past decade.
Yet, in our view, this marks the near-term bottom of the economy, and a recovery due to the easing of policy since May is gaining momentum. Despite improved market sentiment on China’s near-term growth outlook, many investors are still cautious on the takeoff of the economy. We forecast 7.8% for 4Q12, and are more optimistic for 2013 with a projected growth of 8.3%.
The Chinese economy has largely stabilized at the bottom due to recent policy easing
On the monetary side, the PBC has cut the interest rate twice, and the effective lending rate floor is as low as 4.2%. In addition, the PBC has also been using substantial reverse repos to stabilize liquidity conditions at a proper level. As a result, financing conditions have persistently improved since May (Figure 25) as total social financing in September was up nearly three times YoY. In that sense, monetary policy has done its job. No further monetary easing is warranted beyond the current status quo.
view report-[China Macro] A policy-driven economy
Source: Mirae Asset Financial Group
OECD-India: Sustaining high/inclusive growth
October 17, 2012--Foreword
India's economy has grown at an impressive pace over the last two decades as a result of wide-ranging
structural reforms to open up the economy and make it more competitive.
More recently, activity has slowed reflecting not only the weak global environment but also the emergence of
strains created by the pressure that rapid economic growth has put on energy, natural resources, infrastructure and skills.
Institutions, regulation and economic governance need to adapt to sustain the economic transformation required for India to address its social and economic challenges. The bottlenecks that are bearing down on growth will have to be addressed for India to continue to narrow its major gap in living standards with middleincome and OECD economies, to reduce widespread poverty, to reverse rising inequality and to improve the wellbeing of all Indians. This is essential for India but also for the world economy at large.
view the OECD "Better Policies" Series-India: Sustaining high and inclusive growth
Source: OECD
Deutsche Bank-Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy-Asia-Pac Weekly ETF Market Review-ETP AUM remains flat amid mixed equity markets
October 15, 2012--Market Review
Last week, the Asia-Pacific region had mixed markets. Compared to the week before, from north to south:
Japan (Nikkei 225) -3.71%
Korea (KOSPI2) -3.67%
China (CSI 300) +0.50%
Hong Kong (HSI) +0.59%
Singapore (FSSTI) -2.13%
Australia (S&P/ASX 200) -0.17%
New Product Launch Review
Three new ETFs were launched in the Asia-Pacific ETP market during last week. Dacheng Fund Management Co Ltd listed one equity ETF on Shanghai Stock Exchange offering exposure to CSI 500 SSE Stocks Index and Samsung Asset Management listed one multi asset ETF on the Korea Stock Exchange tracking S&P/KRX Balanced Equity & Gold Index. Further, Harvest Fund Management Company launched one equity ETF on Hong Kong Exchange tracking MSCI China A Index with two listings traded in Hong Kong Dollar and Chinese Yuan respectively. (See Figure 4 for further details)
Turnover Review
Asia-Pacific ETP turnover totaled $6.7bn last week, 181% up from the previous week’s total. South Korea continued to top the turnover ranking with $2.7bn, followed by China ($1.6bn), Hong Kong ($1.5bn), Japan ($0.6bn), and Taiwan ($0.2bn). Among Equity ETFs, the Emerging Country, Leveraged Strategy, Asia-Pacific Developed Country, and Short Strategy ETFs had total turnovers of $3.4bn, $1.3bn, $1bn, and $0.6bn respectively. Among the Commodity asset class, turnover in Gold ETPs totaled $83mn.
Assets under Management Review
Last week, Asia-Pacific ETP AUM increased marginally by $534mn and ended at $120bn. On a year-to-date basis, Asia-Pacific ETP market is up by $28.5bn or 31.2% above last year’s closing.
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Source: Deutsche Bank - Global Equity Index and ETF Research - Asia
New pack of yuan ETFs headed to Hong Kong
October 15, 2012--Hong Kong's second batch of renminbi-denominated China stock exchange traded funds is on its way.
Four Chinese fund firms--China Universal Asset Management (Hong Kong), Da Cheng International Asset Management, Bosera Asset Management (International) and HuaAn Asset Management (Hong Kong) -- submitted applications for the launches last month to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, according to an industry source familiar with the situation.
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Source: FT.com
Inflation blow to India rate cut hopes
October 15, 2012--India's inflation accelerated to a 10-month high, hitting 7.81% in September, data on Monday showed, diminishing chances of an interest rate cut to jumpstart a sharply weaker economy.
The September figure was a blow to business leaders who have pressed India's hawkish central bank to cut rates to boost growth which has slowed dramatically.
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Source: FIN24
India to see 242,000 millionaires by 2017: Report
October 14, 2012--India is expected to see a substantial jump in the number of millionaires in the next five years as the total tally for the super rich in the country is likely to touch 242,000 by 2017, a report says.
According to a Credit Suisse Research Institute's Global Wealth Report, the number of millionaires in the country in 2012 stands at 158,000, which is likely to swell to 242,000 by the year 2017, registering an increase of 53 per cent.
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Source: The Times of India
Mutual fund industry to grow to Rs 2,000 billion by 2020: Reliance Capital Asset Management
October 14, 2012--Reliance Capital Asset Management (RCAM) expects the mutual fund industry in India to grow to Rs 2,000 billion by 2020 on the back of regulatory changes and shift in investors' savings pattern.
Reliance Capital Asset Management (RCAM) has about 12 per cent market share in the mutual fund industry, which is pegged at Rs 7.53 lakh crore at present, making it the second largest fund house in the country.
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Source: The Times of India
Hong Kongers see wealth decline
October 12, 2012--One in five Hong Kongers (19% vs 11% in 2011) reported that their net worth decreased in 2012 compared to six months ago, while only a third (31%) claimed that their wealth increased in 2012, down from 42% in 2011.
HSBC’s Hong Kong Wealth Tracker was conducted across 1,600 individuals aged 18-65.
According to the survey, investors have become more cautious in their investments. On average, 60% of liquid assets are held in cash compared to only 40% in investment. A majority of respondents (77%) plan to accumulate more cash, compared to only 61% in 2011.
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Source: Asia Asset Management
Japanese gov't cuts economic view for 3 months in row
October 12, 2012--Japan's government downgraded its view of the economy for the third straight month in October as worries about Europe's debt crisis and China's slowdown intensified, adding pressure on the central bank to offer further stimulus to support growth.
It was the longest streak of downgrades since five straight months of cuts made just after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, underscoring Tokyo's growing alarm that the prolonged overseas slowdown may again nudge Japan into recession. Economics Minister Seiji Maehara said that while it was too early to judge whether Japan may slip into recession, the economy's trend was weak as weak global demand hurt exports. "A further slowdown in global growth and volatility in financial markets may hurt Japan's economy, which are risks we must be vigilant to," Maehara told a news conference on Friday.
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Source: Today's Zaman
China funds, brokerages embrace commodity futures as rules relax
October 11, 2012--Two Chinese fund houses have launched funds focused on the domestic commodities futures market as they look to tap into the burgeoning market that regulators have cautiously opened to local financial institutions this year.
More than a dozen Chinese futures brokerages, which until recently were barred from investing directly into the futures market, have also applied to set up funds that trade commodity futures through a managed account product.
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Source: Reuters
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