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IMF Working Paper-Unleashing India's Growth Potential
April 21, 2023--Summary:
This paper analyzes the drivers of India's growth in the past five decades and considers baseline and upside scenarios of India's medium-term potential growth.
Using a production function approach, the paper assesses the impact of the pandemic on the key factors of production and therefore its impact on medium-term growth. Successful implementation of wide-ranging structural reforms could help support productivity and potential growth over the medium term.
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Source: IMF.org
Asia Likely to See Dynamic Economic Growth, but With Policy Challenges
April 13, 2023--Region would contribute about 70 percent to global growth this year-but still faces challenges from inflation, debt, and financial vulnerabilities<>br>Asia and the Pacific remains a dynamic region despite the somber backdrop of what looks to be shaping up as a challenging year for the world economy.
Global growth is poised to decelerate as rising interest rates and Russia's war in Ukraine weigh on activity. Inflation remains stubbornly high, and banking strains in the United States and Europe have injected greater uncertainty into an already complex economic landscape.
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Source: imf.org
Indian Economy Continues to Show Resilience Amid Global Uncertainties
April 4, 2023--India's growth continues to be resilient despite some signs of moderation in growth, says the World Bank in its latest India Development Update, the World Bank India's biannual flagship publication.
The Update notes that although significant challenges remain in the global environment, India was one of the fastest growing economies in the world.
The overall growth remains robust and is estimated to be 6.9 percent for the full year with real GDP growing 7.7 percent year-on-year during the first three quarters of fiscal year 2022/23
There were some signs of moderation in the second half of FY 22/23. Growth was underpinned by strong investment activity bolstered by the government's capex push and buoyant private consumption, particularly among higher income earners. Inflation remained high, averaging around 6.7 percent in FY22/23 but the current-account deficit narrowed in Q3 on the back of strong growth in service exports and easing global commodity prices.
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Source: worldbank.org
South Asia Faces Weakening Growth Amidst Tightening Financial Conditions
April 4, 2023-South Asia's growth prospects have weakened due to tightening financial conditions, with large downside risks in most countries given limited fiscal space and depleting reserves, says the World Bank in its twice-a-year regional update. The report stresses the need to roll back market distortions introduced during the pandemic and address debilitating socioeconomic divides that constrain South Asia's potential.
Released today, the latest South Asia Economic Focus, Expanding Opportunities: Toward Inclusive Growth, projects regional growth to average 5.6 percent in 2023, a slight downward revision from the October 2022 forecast. Growth is expected to remain moderate at 5.9 percent in 2024, following an initial post-pandemic recovery of 8.2 percent in 2021.
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Source: worldbank.org
East Asia and Pacific Regional Growth to Accelerate as China Rebounds
March 31, 2023--Slowing global growth, commodity prices, financial tightening to weigh in 2023
Growth in developing East Asia and the Pacific is forecast to accelerate in 2023 as China's economy reopens, while the pace of growth in most of the economies in the rest of the region is anticipated to ease after a strong rebound last year, a World Bank report said on Thursday.
Economic performance across the region, while robust, could be held back this year by slowing global growth, elevated commodity prices, and tightening financial conditions in response to persistent inflation, according to the World Bank's East Asia and Pacific April 2023 Economic Update.
Growth in developing East Asia and the Pacific is forecast to accelerate to 5.1% in 2023 from 3.5% in 2022, as China's reopening helps the economy rebound to a 5.1% pace from 3% last year. Growth in the region outside China is anticipated to moderate to 4.9% from the robust post-COVID-19 rebound of 5.8% in 2022, as inflation and elevated household debt in some countries weigh on consumption.
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Source: worldbank.org
IMF Staff Country Report-Japan: Selected Issues
March 30, 2023--DRIVERS OF CORPORATE CASH HOLDINGS IN JAPAN
In Japan, corporate savings have risen since 2000 in line with profits. A large share of the additional savings was kept as cash holdings (i.e., cash and short-term investments) rather than used for investment. Building on a rich literature, this paper identifies two additional drivers of corporate cash holdings using financial data of public and private Japanese firms. First, a higher share of intangible capital is associated with more cash holdings.
This indicates the presence of financial frictions as intangible capital is not easily collateralizable. Such financial friction could be alleviated by shifting towards cash flow-based lending that is prevalent in the United States (US). Second, corporate tax cuts are associated with more cash holdings while having no significant effect on investment. Given the significant fiscal cost, the efficiency of corporate tax cuts should be re-evaluated.
A. Introduction
1. In Japan, private savings have shifted from households to the corporate sector. Household net savings, defined as gross savings minus investment, had declined before the pandemic. At the same time, Japanese corporations went from net borrowers to net savers after the asset bubble burst in the 1990s. The rise of corporate savings mainly reflects higher corporate profits while investment has stagnated.
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Source: inf.org
Will China's new financial regulatory reform be enough to meet the challenges?
March 28, 2023--Executive summary
Effective financial supervision plays a crucial role in maintaining financial stability and a healthy financial system. China's leadership has made financial risk a core priority, and in reforms approved in March 2023, it reassigned regulatory responsibilities, creating a new supervisory body that will take over some responsibilities from the central bank, the banking and insurance regulator, and the securities regulator.
The aim is that a change to the financial supervisory architecture (who does what in financial supervision) will make China's system more effective and stable. In this policy brief, we argue that this incremental reform will not solve the core issues China faces in financial supervisory effectiveness.
We provide an overview of China's large and complex financial system, including its largely state-owned banks (some of which are the largest in the world by assets), securities markets and other financial intermediaries. Traditional divisions between different types of activities and institutions have been blurred by the rise of large financial conglomerates, risk-transfer techniques and internet-based finance. Reforms in 2018 to China's supervisory architecture did not eliminate perceived shortcomings, including failures to effectively regulate financial conglomerates, fintech and regional banks.
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Source: bruegel.org
JPMAM partners up to offer Indian investors access to its ETF
March 21, 2023--Bandhan Mutual Fund's vehicle will invest in a JPMorgan US debt exchange traded fund
India's Bandhan Mutual Fund has launched the country's first US debt fund of funds, leveraging one of JPMorgan Asset Management's exchange traded funds as an underlying strategy.
The Bandhan US Treasury Bond 0-1 Year Fund of Fund is an open-ended FOF scheme investing in the $2.33bn JPMorgan BetaBuilders US Treasury Bond 0-1 year Ucits ETF, a strategy that tracks the performance of US dollar-denominated fixed rate government bonds issued by the US Treasury with a maturity of less than one year.
Benchmarked against the ICE 0-1 Year US Treasury Securities Index, the Bandhan US Treasury Bond 0-1 Year FOF offering kicked off on March 10 and will close on March 23.
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Source: ft.com
IMF Staff Completes 2023 Article IV Mission to Malaysia
March 20, 2023--After a strong recovery in 2022, growth is projected to moderate in 2023 due to external headwinds, and inflation to remain elevated.
A gradual and credible fiscal consolidation strategy is needed to rebuild buffers while tightening monetary policy remains appropriate to contain inflation.
Coordinated implementation of structural reform policies set out in the Twelfth Malaysia Plan and the 2023 Budget is needed to achieve inclusive growth, enhance digitalization, reduce governance and corruption vulnerabilities, and address climate change.
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team, led by Mr. Lamin Leigh, conducted discussions for the 2023 Article IV Consultation with Malaysian authorities and other stakeholders during March 8-20, 2023. At the conclusion of the discussions, Mr. Leigh issued the following statement:
"The Malaysian economy registered a strong recovery in 2022. Growth reached 8.7 percent driven by pent-up domestic demand following the reopening of the economy in April 2022 and resilient export performance. Staff estimates the output gap to have closed in 2022. The recovery remains uneven with agriculture, mining, and particularly construction sectors remaining below pre-pandemic levels. "
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Source: imf.org
ETFs help drive huge growth in India's investment market
March 7, 2023--Launch of new passive equity-linked savings schemes expected to further boost industry, Cerulli says
India's mutual fund industry is shifting gradually towards more passive investing, with local regulators relaxing guidelines for firms looking to offer such vehicles, according to consultancy Cerulli Associates.
Net new flows to India-domiciled funds in December jumped to $1.4bn from $500mn during the previous month.
And it was ETFs and index funds that collectively led annual net flows in the market in 2022, pulling in Rs832.4bn ($10.1bn) and Rs793.6bn respectively.
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Source: ft.com
