Americas ETP News
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Morgan Stanley-ETF Tracking Error: A Modest Rise in 2013
March 20, 2014--Morgan Stanley defines tracking error in this report as the difference in total return
between an ETF's net asset value (NAV) and its underlying index. In our
view,the most common sources of tracking error include fees and
expenses,portfolio optimization,fair value pricing of net asset value
(NAV), ownership restrictions, and index turnover.
Average and weighted average tracking error for US-listed ETFs in our
study was 66 and 45 basis points (bps),respectively, in 2013. This
reflected a modest increase of 7 bps in average tracking error and a 1 bps
increase in weighted average tracking error from 2012 levels.
We attribute the slight uptick in average tracking error to myriad factors
at play in 2013. 1) Increasing complexity of underlying markets; 2) the
effect of compounding amid higher asset prices in relation to expense
ratios; 3) strong performance of MLPs; 4) strong performance and
declining correlations impacting optimization techniques.
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Source: Morgan Stanley
BlackRock ETP Landscape-February 2014
March 10, 2014--Fixed Income ETP flows surged in early February while Equities recovered after a rocky start.
Global ETP inflows finished February at $27.2bn spurred on by Janet Yellen's February 11th address to Congress, which was well received by equity markets.
Fixed Income flows of $19.6bn set a new monthly record amid expectations for continued low interest rates and low inflation.
US Treasuries brought in $11.4bn and Investment Grade Corporate gathered $3.6bn. High Yield Corporate added $1.4bn.
Despite inflows into all duration buckets, Short Maturity funds had a record month taking in $7.4bn.
Overall Equity flows were moderate at $5.8bn with investors continuing to favour non-US Developed Markets exposures.
Japanese Equity inflows reached $4.1bn and Pan-European funds gathered $2.8bn as evidence continues to point toward improving growth in the region.
US Equity outflows totaled ($0.2bn) and Emerging Markets shed ($4.5bn).
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Source: BlackRock ETP Landscape Research
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
March 19, 2014--Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that growth in economic activity slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting adverse weather conditions.
Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, however, remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment continued to advance, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
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Source: FRB
Fundementals-A Preference for Discomfort
March 19, 2014--Yikes is right! Investors continue to underperform the market by a significant margin, as Russ Kinnel of Morningstar reminds us in his 2014 version of "Mind the Gap."1 While many theories try to explain this persistent underperformance, I will focus on one: Too many of today's commentators seem not to notice that our knowledge of investment markets has progressed well beyond the theories of the 1960s.
Today, too many cling to the simple to understand but thoroughly refuted theory of a single market beta. Too many misinterpret today's ongoing debate about market efficiency as supporting the long abandoned theory that all investors should hold an identical portfolio. Too many misinterpret the sound guidance from experts advising individual investors to buy and hold low cost index funds as proof that earning above market returns is unattainable.
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Source: Research Affiliates
DB-Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy-North America-US ETF Market Weekly Review-US ETP assets down by 1.4% amid geopolitical tension
March 18, 2014--Data in this report is as of Friday, March 14
Market and Net Cash Flows Review
Geopolitical tension, China and US economic data weighed on equity markets last week. The US (S&P 500) fell by 1.97%; while, outside the US, the MSCI EAFE (in USD) and the MSCI EM (USD) dropped by 3.06% and 2.98%, respectively. In the meantime, performance was mostly negative across US sectors. The Utilities (+2.29%) sector recorded the only increase.
Moving into other asset classes, the DB Liquid Commodity Index fell by 0.91%; in the meantime, the Agriculture sector (DB Diversified Agriculture Index), Gold and Silver prices rose by 1.03%, 3.21% and 2.58%, respectively; while, the WTI Crude Oil fell by 3.60%.
The 10Y US Treasury Yield dropped by 15bps ending at 2.65%. Lastly, Volatility (VIX) rose by 26.29% during the same period.
The total US ETP flows from all products registered $2.3bn (+0.1% of AUM) of inflows during last week vs. $1.9bn (+0.1%) of inflows the previous week, setting the YTD weekly flows average at +$0.7bn (+$7.9bn YTD in total cash flows). Equity, Fixed Income and Commodity ETPs experienced flows of +$1.8bn (+0.1%), -$0.1bn (-0.0%) and +$0.6bn (+0.9%) last week vs. +$10.7bn (+0.8%), -$8.7bn (-3.1%) and +$0.3bn (+0.4%) in the previous week, respectively.
Among US sectors, Consumer Discretionary (+$0.3bn, +2.7%) and Financials (+$0.3bn, +0.4%) received the top inflows, while Energy (-$1.4bn, -4.5%) and Materials (-$0.3bn, -2.4%) experienced the largest outflows.
Top 3 ETPs & ETNs by inflows: SPY (+$2.1bn), IWM (+$1.3bn), GLD (+$0.5bn)
Top 3 ETPs & ETNs by outflows: QQQ (-$0.9bn), EEM (-$0.9bn), XLE (-$0.7bn)
New Launch Calendar: New smart-beta alternatives
Six new ETFs were listed during the previous week. First Trust listed two new smart-beta ETFs offering exposure to Industrials (AIRR) and access to income (QINC). Global X expanded its Guru family of ETFs listing two new smart-beta ETFs focusing in US Small Caps (GURX) and international equities (GURI). Cambria listed GVAL, which offers exposure to global equities with focus in Value. Last but not least, State Street listed a new ETF (IJNK) focusing in international HY corporate bonds, offering an international alternative to JNK.
Turnover Review: Floor activity decreased by 12.3%
Total weekly turnover decreased by 12.3% to $334.6bn vs. $381.4bn from the previous week. However, last week's turnover level was 16.9% over last year's weekly average. Equity, Fixed Income and Commodity ETPs turnover decreased by $28.2bn (-8.5%), $18.4bn (-52.4%) and $0.5bn (-5.3%) during the same period, respectively.
Assets under Management (AUM) Review: assets decreased by $23.6bn
US ETP assets dropped by $23.6bn (-1.4%) totaling $1.690 trillion at the end of the week. As of last Friday, US ETPs had accumulated an asset growth of +0.7% YTD. Assets for Equity, Fixed Income and Commodity ETPs moved -$26.0bn, +$0.4bn and +$2.1bn during last week, respectively.
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Source: Deutsche Bank-Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy-North America
ETFs key to Nasdaq indexing ambitions
March 18, 2014--Nasdaq OMX, the exchange operator, wants to expand its activities in the exchange traded funds market as its indexing business celebrates the 15th anniversary of the QQQ, one of the most successful ETFs to track one of its benchmarks.
The Invesco PowerShares QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index, has grown into one of the world's most popular ETFs. It has assets of $45bn after first being launched in 1999 with $14m.
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Source: FT.com
Morgan Stanley-US ETF Weekly Update
March 17, 2014--US ETF Weekly Update
Weekly Flows: $2.3 Billion Net Inflows
Fifth Consecutive Week of Net Inflows Totaling $32.2 Billion
ETF Assets Stand at $1.7 Trillion, Up 1% YTD
Six ETF Launches Last Week
US-Listed ETFs: Estimated Flows by Market Segment
ETFs posted net inflows of $2.3 bln last week, fifth consecutive week of net inflows
Over the last five weeks, ETFs have generated net inflows of $32.2 bln
Last week's net inflows were led by US Small- & Micro-Cap ETFs at $1.7 bln; conversely, International
Emerging ETFs posted net outflows of $1.5 bln, the most of any category we measured
Nine of the 15 categories we measured posted net inflows last week
ETF assets stand at $1.7 tln, up 1% YTD
13-week flows remain positive among asset classes; combined $18.1 bln in net inflows
International - Developed ETFs have generated $16.4 bln in net inflows over the last 13 weeks as money has flocked to Europe and Japan amid improving earnings expectations
International - Emerging ETFs have posted net outflows for four consecutive weeks totaling $3.6 bln, and $15.0 bln in net outflows over the last 13 weeks, as investors flee the space and sentiment remains negative
US-Listed ETFs: Estimated Largest Flows by Individual ETF
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) posted net inflows of $2.1 bln this past week, the most of any ETF
Despite SPY's net inflows last week, SPY historically exhibits net outflows during the first quarter of the year and this year is no different
The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) had another strong week of net inflows; IWM took in $1.3 bln in net inflows last week and $3.9 bln over the last 13 weeks
The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has now posted net inflows in seven of the last nine weeks totaling $1.0 bln; over the last year, GLD has exhibited net outflows of $18.2 bln
Over the last four weeks, the ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) has posted net outflows of $2.8 bln, bringing its market cap to $45 mln
Emerging market equity ETFs continue to experience net outflows; specifically, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) exhibited net outflows of $870 mln last week and over the last 13 weeks, posted net outflows of $9.8 bln
US-Listed ETFs: ETF Dollar Volume
ETF monthly $ volume as a % of listed trading volume remained flat in February at 25%, which is below the five-year average of 28%
Over the last five years, ETF monthly $ volume as a % of listed trading volume peaked in August 2011 at 36%
ETF $ volume last week was $343 bln, down from $393 bln the prior week, however 6% above its 13-week average
Fixed Income ETFs accounted for 4% of ETF $ volume last week compared to 8% the prior week; their 13-week average is 6%
US-Listed ETFs: Short Interest Data Updated: Based on data as of 2/28/14
The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) had the largest increase in USD short interest at $1.6 bln
The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) also had a big jump in short interest ($1.5 bln increase); EEM's shares short (192 mln) are at their highest level of all-time as investors remain cautious about emerging markets
657 ETFs exhibited short interest increases while 588 experienced short interest declines over the last period
Aggregate ETF USD short interest increased by $1.1 bln over the period ended 2/28/14
The average shares short/shares outstanding for ETFs is currently 4.3%, up from 4.1% last period
Six of the 10 most heavily shorted ETFs as a % of shares outstanding are sector/industry related
The CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) is currently the most heavily shorted ETF as measured by shares short/shares outstanding at 266%; notably, FXE's market price is trading near a one-year high
Based on multiple borrowings and the ability to continuously create new shares, shares short as a % of shares outstanding can exceed 100% (only nine ETFs exhibited shares short as a % of shares outstanding greater than 100%)
US-Listed ETFs: Most Successful Recent Launches by Assets
$8.6 bln in total market cap of ETFs less than 1-year old
Fixed Income ETFs account for 25% of the market capitalization of ETFs launched over the past year, the most of any category; 39 Fixed Income ETFs were brought to market over the last year as ETF issuers expand the breadth of fixed income offerings
Over the last 13 weeks, International - Developed ETFs have attracted $541 mln in net inflows, the most of any group; strong International - Developed ETF flows coincide with the ETF universe as a whole
50 new ETF listings and eight closures YTD (10 additional closures announced)
The top 10 most successful launches make up 45% of the market cap of ETFs launched over the past year
Six ETF sponsors and two asset classes (equities and fixed income) represented in top 10 most successful launches
Despite not cracking the top 10, the First Trust Dorsey Wright Focus 5 ETF (FV) generated net inflows of $27 mln last week, the most of any recently launched ETF; FV is an ETF that selects First Trust sector/industry ETFs based on their relative strength
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Source: Morgan Stanley
SEC to take another look at ETF regulation
Rule proposal would touch on active vs. index funds, transparency, flexibility and inverse leverage
March 17, 2014--The Securities and Exchange Commission is poised to dust off a rule proposal on exchange-traded funds that was first released in 2008.
"This is a rule the staff would love to do," Diane Blizzard, associate director of the SEC's Division of Investment Management, said at the Investment Company Institute’s Mutual Fund and Investment Management Conference in Orlando, Fla., on Monday. "We’re looking at issues that really weren’t addressed in '08 but are issues now."
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Source: Investment News
CFTC.gov Commitments of Traders Reports Update
March 14, 2014--The current reports for the week of March 11, 2014 are now available.
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Source: CFTC.gov
Latin America: Increase in Number of Retirees with the Right to a Pension
March 13, 2014--STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Around 11 million adults over age 65 who had been excluded from pension systems were able to receive benefits.
In Latin America there are approximately 290 million people of working age.
Fifty-five percent of them do not contribute to any pension system
One solution to this problem would be to improve labor market formality to ensure that workers make regular contributions.
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Source: World Bank
