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Post-conflict Recovery: Institutions, Aid, or Luck? IMF Working paper
June 28, 2011--Summary: This paper identifies the factors linked to cross-country differentials in growth performance in the aftermath of social conflict for 30 sub-Saharan African countries using panel data techniques. Our results show that changes in the terms of trade are the most important correlate of economic performance in post-conflict environments.
This variable is typically associated with an increase in the marginal probability of positive economic performance by about 30 percent. Institutional quality emerges as the second most important factor. Foreign aid is shown to have very limited ability to explain differentials in growth performance, and other policy variables such as trade openness are not found to have a statistically significant effect. The results suggest that exogenous factors ("luck") are an important factor in post-conflict recovery. They also highlight the importance in post-conflict settings of policies to mitigate the macroeconomic impact of terms of trade volatility (including countercyclical macroeconomic policies and innovative financing instruments) and of policies to promote export diversification.
view IMF Working paper-Post-conflict Recovery: Institutions, Aid, or Luck?
Source: IMF
JSE, rand rally on renewed Greek hopes
June 28, 2011--South Africa's stocks hit two-week highs and the rand firmed versus the dollar on Tuesday on hopes that Greece could approve spending cuts that are needed for the country to secure more loans.
Greece's debt problems have dominated world markets, with investors worried about contagion if the country defaults on its loans. Lawmakers are due to vote on whether they will approve austerity measures on Wednesday and Thursday.
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Source: FIN24
Bonds mixed in late trade
June 28, 2011-- South African bonds were mixed in late trade on Tuesday. A local trader said today's auction did not go well at all.
"Today's auction was bad. Prior to it, the curve was relatively well-bid, but that changed afterwards especially in the ultra-long end. The R213s cleared 5 points higher in the auction, and that sent the market gaping," he said.
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Source: FIN24
JSE closes up on bargain-hunting
June 27, 2011-- The JSE started the day with a bit of a whimper and ended with some bang on Monday, as bargain-hunting lifting industrial, retail and mining stocks.
An upbeat start on Wall Street also gave the local market a boost, while commodity prices remained stable, said Andrew Todd, an equity derivatives trader at Imara SP Reid. But the market kept a close eye on the developments in Greece, Todd said.
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Source: AME Info
Rand under pressure as commodities sag
June 27, 2011--The rand fell to a near-month low against the dollar on Monday, weighed down by weaker commodity prices and also feeling the pressure from falling global equity markets.
The currency dropped to R6.9225 to the greenback, its weakest since May 31, before coming back to R6.9139 by 06:41 GMT, compared with Friday's close at R6.91.
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Source: FIN24
Bonds end quiet session firmer
June 27, 2011--South African bonds remained firm in late trade on Monday. A local trader said it had been an "absolutely dead quiet day".
By 15:50, the benchmark R157 bond was trading at 7.395% from its previous close of 7.420%. The R207 was bid at 8.315% and offered at 8.285% from 8.320%, and the R186 was trading at 8.520% from 8.525%.
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Source: FIN24
Cosatu 'firmly' favours bank, mines grab
June 27, 2011-- Cosatu remains firmly in support of the nationalisation of mines and the banks, it emerged on Monday.
The support for nationalisation is stated in Cosatu secretary general Zwelinzima Vavi's report to the trade union federation's fifth central committee meeting.
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Source: FIN24
JSE rises, rand succumbs to forex buying
June 24, 2011--South Africa’s stocks were up more that 1% while bonds gained as foreigners bought local debt, attracted by higher yields.
Despite offshore interest in bonds, the rand recorded its biggest weekly loss in six weeks. It was on the back foot partly due to Reserve Bank buying of foreign exchange.
It will likely keep its weaker tone as worries that Greece might not pass austerity measures needed for the country to secure loans kept investors hesitant to pile on risky assets.
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Source: FIN24
Offshore interest boosts bonds
June 24, 2011--South African bonds remained firm in late trade on Friday, which a trader said was on the back of foreign interest for local bonds.
By 15:50, the benchmark R157 bond was trading at 7.420% from its previous close of 7.485%. The R207 was bid at 8.330% and offered at 8.305% from 8.375%, and the R186 was trading at 8.520% from 8.600%.
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Source: FIN24
Rand, JSE hit by recovery jitters
June 23, 2011--South African markets fell more than 1.5% on Thursday as investors dumped high risk assets in favour of the dollar on worries that the global economic recovery may be stalling.
The rand registered its biggest daily fall to the dollar since May 23 and was in the bottom three of the worst performers among emerging currencies tracked by Reuters.
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Source: FIN24
