Global ETF News Older than One Year
Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, December 2014
Composite leading indicators point to continued loss of growth momentum in Europe
December 12, 2014--Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, suggest that growth will continue to lose momentum in Europe while the outlook is for stable growth momentum in most other major economies and in the OECD area as a whole.
In Europe, the CLI for the United Kingdom points to growth easing, albeit from relatively high levels, while in the Euro Area the CLI continues to indicate a loss of growth momentum, particularly in Germany and Italy.
Stable growth momentum, however, is expected for France.
Source: OECD
IEA releases Oil Market Report for December
Weaker outlook for oil-exporting countries to trim 2015 demand growth
December 12, 2014--The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for December cut the outlook for 2015 global oil demand growth by 230 000 barrels per day (230 kb/d) to 0.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) on lower expectations for the Former Soviet Union and other oil-exporting countries.
The monthly report told subscribers that a strong dollar and the lifting of subsidies have so far limited supportive price effects on demand, which is now seen reaching 93.3 mb/d next year, from 92.4 mb/d in 2014.
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA)
DECPG Weekly Economic Brief
December 12, 2014--Strengthening of the U.S. dollar through the course of 2014 has sparked a flurry of warnings that a strong dollar may cause sharp depreciations in emerging markets.
Generally, though, emerging markets have experienced mild exchange rate movements this year compared to those that occurred during previous episodes of sustained U.S. dollar appreciation, and growth in these economies is expected to strengthen through 2017.
Source: World Bank
IMF Working paper-Global Monetary Tightening: Emerging Markets Debt Dynamics and Fiscal Crises
December 12, 2014--Summary: This paper finds that tightening global financial conditions can worsen emerging economies' public debt dynamics through an increasing interest rate-growth differential, particularly if coupled with high global risk aversion.
Latin America and emerging Europe are the regions most likely to be adversely affected. In addition, historical evidence-analyzed by means of a Poisson count model-suggests that the frequency of sovereign debt crises increases in emerging economies at the early stage of U.S. monetary tightening cycles, at times in which the term spread also rises. The timing may be related to abrupt switches of expectations about the future course of policy in the early stages of tightening cycles.
Source: IMF
IMF Working paper-Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation
December 12, 2014--Summary: How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR).
First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
view the IMF Working paper-Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation
Source: IMF
IMF Working paper-Regulation and Supervision of Islamic Banks
December 12, 2014--Summary: This paper aims at developing a better understanding of Islamic banking (IB) and providing policy recommendations to enhance the supervision of Islamic banks (IBs).
It points out and discusses similarities and differences of IBs with conventional banks (CBs) and reviews whether the IBs are more stable than CBs. Given the risks faced by IBs, the paper concludes that they need a legal, corporate and regulatory framework as much as CB does. The paper also argues that it is important to ensure operational independence of the supervisory agency, which has to be supported by adequate resources, a sound legal framework, a well designed governance structure, and robust accountability practices.
view the IMF Working paper-Regulation and Supervision of Islamic Banks
Source: IMF
IMF Working paper-Islamic Banking Regulation and Supervision: Survey Results and Challenges
December 12, 2014--Summary: The growing presence of Islamic banking needs to be accompanied by the development of effective regulation and supervision. This paper examines the results of the survey conducted by the International Monetary Fund to document international experiences and country practices related to legal and prudential frameworks governing Islamic banking activities.
Although a number of countries have made considerable progress in creating legal, regulatory, and supervisory frameworks that accommodate Islamic banking, there are substantial differences. This paper also identifies a number of challenges faced by regulatory and supervisory agencies regarding Islamic banking.
view the IMF Working paper-Islamic Banking Regulation and Supervision: Survey Results and Challenges
Source: IMF
Criteria for identifying "simple, transparent and comparable' securitisations: consultative document
issued by the Basel Committee and IOSCO
December 11, 2014--The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) and the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) released today a consultative document on Criteria for identifying simple, transparent and comparable securitisations.
The framework is available on the websites of the Bank for International Settlements and IOSCO.
The purpose of these criteria is to identify-and to assist the financial industry's development of-simple, transparent and comparable securitisations structures, as well as to help parties involved in a securitisation transaction evaluate the risks of a particular securitisation as part of their due diligence on securitisations.
view the Criteria for identifying simple, transparent and comparable securitisations (December 2014)
Source: BIS
Bold Energy Reforms Needed across Major Emerging Economies to Sustain Economic Growth and Tackle Sustainability Challenges: WEF Report
December 10, 2014--The Global Energy Architecture Performance Index Report 2015, launched today, ranks 125 countries on ability to deliver secure, affordable and sustainable energy
Switzerland, Norway and France top the global rankings; Brazil ranks highest of the major emerging economies examined, with China and India facing some of the greatest challenges
Effective energy reforms are required to address sustainability challenges and continue to power economic growth in major emerging economies, particularly against the backdrop of a slowing world economy
Major emerging economies should push forward with policies to address high energy intensity and corrosive energy subsidies, and to encourage wider investment, according to the World Economic Forum's Global Energy Architecture Performance Index Report 2015, which is released today.
The annual index, designed to help countries address challenges and identify opportunities across their energy systems, benchmarks the energy architecture of 125 countries based on their ability to provide energy access across three dimensions of the energy triangle – affordability, environmental sustainability, and security and access.
view the Global Energy Architecture Performance Index Report 2015
Source: WEF (World Economic Furum)
UN World Economic Situation and Prospects 2015
December 10, 2014--Global economy to improve marginally, but mounting uncertainties and risks could undermine economic growth, says UN Upcoming US interest rate increases, remaining euro area fragility, a further slowdown in developing economies and geopolitical conflicts pose major concerns for global economic outlook
Global economic growth is forecast to increase marginally over the next two years, according to the United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects 2015 (WESP) report, launched today. The global economy is expected to grow 3.1 per cent in 2015 and 3.3 per cent in 2016, compared with an estimated growth of 2.6 per cent for 2014.
The global economy expanded during 2014 at a moderate and uneven pace. Legacies from the global financial crisis continue to weigh on growth, while new challenges have emerged, including geopolitical conflicts such as in Ukraine and the Ebola epidemic.
view infographic-World Economic Situation and Prospects 2015
Source: UN DESA
