OECD-States of Fragility 2025
you are currently viewing::OECD-States of Fragility 2025February 18, 2025-States of Fragility 2025 considers a world of shifting power dynamics, where the most severe impacts of crisis, conflict and instability converge in the 61 contexts identified with high and extreme fragility. Multidimensional fragility lies at the core of the geopolitical shifts that are disrupting decades long global power equilibria, creating challenges and opportunities that require deep reflection and rapid adaptation across humanitarian, development and peace communities. The report analyses the state of fragility in 2025, how it shapes global structural trends, current responses to it, and how it is perceived and tackled by the people most exposed to its impact: the 2 billion people in contexts with high and extreme fragility that account for 25% of the world’s population but 72% of the world’s extreme poor. Maintaining a focus on the furthest behind is more critical than ever for development partners, as a global good and a geostrategic necessity. Fragility is the combination of exposure to risk and the insufficient resilience of a state, system and/or community to manage, absorb or mitigate those risks. The OECD multidimensional fragility framework assesses fragility based on 56 indicators of risk and resilience across six dimensions: economic, environmental, political, security, societal and human. This provides the analytical foundation for the States of Fragility report series and online platform. Source: oecd.org |
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January 19, 2026-But risks are rising, including from the concentration of tech investment and the negative effects of trade disruptions, which may build over time
Global economic growth continues to show notable resilience despite significant US-led trade disruptions and heightened uncertainty.
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January 14, 2026-Geoeconomic confrontation emerges as the top global risk for 2026, climbing eight positions in the two-year outlook, as economic risks rise fastest in the short term-with downturn and inflation both surging eight positions year-on-year.
AI anxiety soars while environmental risks declined in ranking in the short term.
Global outlook remains uncertain: half of experts expect a turbulent or stormy global outlook; only 1% anticipate calm.
January 13, 2026-The global economy demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2025 despite increased trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Activity was supported by a stockpiling of goods, strong risk appetite, and a surge in artificial intelligence (AI)-related investment. Global growth in 2025 capped a solid five-year recovery from the 2020 recession, but vulnerable emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) continue to lag behind, according to the Global Economic Prospects report.
January 8, 2026--Declining inflation and monetary easing offer relief, yet subdued investment and
lingering uncertainties weigh on global momentum.
Global economic output is forecast to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2026, slightly below the 2.8 per cent estimated for 2025 and well below the pre-pandemic average of 3.2 per cent, according to the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026, released by the United Nations today.
January 7, 2026--Global cooperation is at a crossroads. While overall collaboration has flatlined, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and instability, positive momentum in areas of climate and nature, innovation and technology, and health and wellness offer hope.
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