The Chinese economy: stimulus without rebalancing

August 26, 2025-China remains hesitant about rebalancing its growth model towards greater consumption
China's growth model has continued to rely on expanding industrial capacity and exporting to the world,rather than on domestic consumption. This has led to a significant increase in China's global share of manufactured exports and has raised concerns about overcapacity.

The imbalance arises because China's expanding production capacity is outpacing domestic demand. Overcapacity would be best addressed by boosting domestic demand,particularly through stronger household consumption.

The United States and European Union have for years urged China to shift its economic focus away from manufacturing and exports,and towards greater reliance on domestic consumption,in order to address its structural saving-investment imbalance1. However,rebalancing towards a more consumption-driven growth model in China has yet to take hold in a significant way. On the contrary,the contribution of external demand to China's economic growth has remained strong,especially since the second half of 2024

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Source: bruegel.org