Global ETF News Older than One Year
Conformism and Public News -IMF Working Paper
February 9, 2011--Summary: We study a model where investment decisions are based on investors’ information about the unknown and endogenous return of the investment. The information of investors consists of endogenously determined messages sold by financial analysts who have access to both public and private information on the return of the investment.
We assume that the return of the investment is correlated with the aggregate investment. This results into a beauty contest among analysts (or a "conformism" effect). In equilibrium, analysts sell all the information they have to all the investors. A striking result is that there are sometimes multiple equilibria. There are equilibria where the beauty contest is exacerbated. Because of the correlation across analysts' information sources, not all the information available in the economy is transmitted to investors.
view IMF Working paper-Conformism and Public News
Source: IMF
IEA-Highlights of the latest Oil Market Report
February 10, 2011--HIGHLIGHTS
Crude prices were propelled higher at end?January by political
unrest in Egypt, with Brent crude reaching $100/bbl on fears that
the turmoil might disrupt Suez canal and SUMED pipeline flows or
spread in the region. Although prices have since eased, Brent futures
remain around $100.50/bbl and WTI at $87.20/bbl at writing.
Global oil product demand for 2010 and 2011 is revised up by 120 kb/d on average on higher?than?expected submissions in non?OECD Asia and improved economic prospects for OECD North America. At 87.8 mb/d in 2010, global oil demand rose by 2.8 mb/d year?on?year, and should reach 89.3 mb/d in 2011 (+1.5 mb/d year?on?year).
World oil supply rose 0.5 mb/d in January, to 88.5 mb/d, on higher OPEC crude and NGL output. Non?OPEC supply was unchanged from December at 53 mb/d, as outages continued to constrain production. 2010 estimates remain at 52.8 mb/d, while the 2011 outlook is nudged up 0.1 mb/d to 53.5 mb/d on higher North American output.
OPEC crude supply scaled two?year highs in January at 29.85 mb/d, with Iraq underpinning the 280 kb/d monthly increase. OPEC NGLs in 1Q11 rise by 200 kb/d to 5.7 mb/d on gains from Qatar and UAE. The 2011 ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ now averages 29.9 mb/d after upward revisions to demand, close to observed January OPEC output levels. OPEC effective spare capacity stands at 4.7 mb/d.
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA)
IEO Releases Evaluation of IMF Performance in the Run-Up to the Financial and Economic Crisis: IMF Surveillance in 2004–07
February 9, 2011--The Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released today its evaluation of the IMF Performance in the Run-Up to the Financial and Economic Crisis. This evaluation was discussed by the IMF’s Executive Board on January 26, 2011. In releasing the report, IEO Director Moises Schwartz explained that the evaluation’s main aim is to improve the effectiveness of IMF surveillance in
warning the membership on emerging risks and vulnerabilities to the global economy.
The evaluation focused on the performance of IMF surveillance during the 2004-2007 period. The report found that the IMF provided few clear warnings about the risks and vulnerabilities associated with the impending crisis before its outbreak. During the run-up to the crisis, the banner message of IMF surveillance was characterized by overconfidence in the soundness and resiliency of large financial institutions, and endorsement of the financial practices in the main financial centers. The risks associated with housing booms and financial innovations were downplayed, as was the need for stronger regulation to address these risks.
The IEO found that the IMF’s ability to identify the mounting risks was hindered by a number of factors, including a high degree of groupthink; intellectual capture; and a general mindset that a major financial crisis in large advanced economies was unlikely. Weak internal governance and an institutional culture that discourages contrarian views also played an important role.
Source: Independent Evaluation Office (IEO)
Dow Jones Index Data Monthly Reports
February 9, 2011--The following Dow Jones Index Data Monthly Reports for OCtober 2010 are now available.
Index Data Monthly Report: Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Indexes
Index Data Monthly Report: Latin America Edition.
Index Data Monthly Report: Dow Jones Brookfield Infrastructure Indexes
Source: Dow Jones Indexes
French oil giant Total facing investor resolution on tar sands
Company to face questions at AGM in May
February 9, 2011--French activist investor PhiTrust Active Investors is to quiz Total SA on the tar sands issue at the oil major’s forthcoming annual shareholder meeting.
PhiTrust says it will table a resolution on the risks involved in its tar sands operations in Alberta, Canada. Fellow oil firms BP and Shell have faced similar shareholder resolutions on the tar sands issue in the past, but PhiTrust claims it is the first such resolution in France. Total is set to hold its Annual Shareholders’ Meeting in Paris on May 13.
Source: Responsible Investor
NYSE Euronext, Deutsche Boerse shares suspended
February 9, 2011--Officials at stock exchange operators NYSE Euronext and Germany's Deutsche Boerse AG say trading of their own shares has been halted — after shares of the New York-based stock exchange operator soared 12 percent.
Caroline Tourrier, spokeswoman for NYSE Euronext, said the stock exchange's shares were suspended pending a press release. She declined further comment.
A Deutsche Boerse spokesman declined to comment on why trading in its shares has been halted.
Two rival exchanges — the London Stock Exchange Group PLC and TMX Group Inc., which operates the Toronto Stock Exchange — announced a merger earlier Wednesday.
NYSE Euronext shares last traded at euro27 ($36.81), up 12 percent, while Deutsche Boerse's last quoted share price was euro58.42, up 1.7 percent.
Source: Associated Press
The World Federation of Exchanges Publishes 2010 Market Statistics
February 7, 2011-- Global equity market capitalization on regulated exchanges increased 14.9 percent to $54.8 trillion (USD) in 2010 as markets continued their rebound from the 2008 financial crisis, the World Federation of Exchanges (WFE ) reported in its annual publication of market statistics.
The 2010 total market capitalization for the more than 50 WFE-member exchanges, which had increased 45.5 percent increase in 2009, approached its record high of $60.8 trillion (USD) last achieved at the end of 2007. The Asia-Pacific region’s capitalization gained 19.5 percent, followed by the Americas (+17.1 percent) and Europe-Africa-Middle east (+7.4 percent).
Source: WFE
Investors back onshore hedge funds
February 7, 2011--A majority of hedge fund investors are eschewing traditional offshore funds in favour of tightly regulated onshore vehicles – a sign of the lasting impact of the Madoff scandal and 2008 liquidity crisis.
According to a comprehensive industry survey, 55 per cent of hedge fund investors would now prefer to allocate money in onshore so-called Ucits funds compared with just 21.7 per cent in traditional offshore Cayman Island funds.
Source: FT.com
Food price boom puts palm oil on emerging markets’ radar
February 4, 2011--Palm oil output and stocks, already lagging robust demand due to rains in top Southeast Asia producers, could be made worse should the cooking ingredient become the next target for emerging markets seeking to buy big and dampen adverse effects of booming world food prices.
As governments from India and Thailand to Egypt act to quell soaring food inflation and public anger, world cooking oil supplies look uncertain as the impact of dry weather and social unrest in the Argentine soy crushing sector lingers. A scramble for palm oil may see world consumption outpace production, going beyond a supply deficit of 246,000 tons as seen in US Department of Agriculture data in the current marketing year to September.
Source: Todays Zaman
Classifications of Countries Based on Their Level of Development: How it is Done and How it Could be Done-IMF Working paper
February 4, 2011-- The paper analyzes how the UNDP, the World Bank, and the IMF classify countries based on their level of development. These systems are found lacking in clarity with regard to their underlying rationale.
The paper argues that a country classification system based on a transparent, data-driven methodology is preferable to one based on judgment or ad hoc rules. Such an alternative methodology is developed and used to construct classification systems using a variety of proxies for development attainment.
Source: IMF
