International trade statistics: trends in fourth quarter 2010
February 25, 2011--Merchandise trade growth quickened in the final quarter of 2010 in most major economies, with record trade figures in China. Total exports of G7 and BRICS countries grew by 8% in the fourth quarter compared to 1% in the previous quarter and total imports grew by 7% compared to 1% in the previous quarter.
Exports were up 3% in China (to US$ 420 billion). But with imports rising at 9% (to US$ 379 billion), China’s trade surplus fell by US$ 17 billion to US$ 41 billion. In the United States the trade deficit decreased to US$ 152 billion, compared to US$ 160 billion in the third quarter, as exports grew by 5%and imports by 1%.
Germany’s trade surplus increased by US$ 10 billion in the fourth quarter of 2010 to reach US$ 54 billion, as export growth of 7% outpaced import growth of 4%. Double-digit export growth in Russia (19%) and South Africa (14%) also led to large increases in these countries’ trade surplus. In India export growth of 21% resulted in a significant decrease in the trade deficit.
Source: OECD
Commodity Inflation in a Multi-Speed World -- Corporate Winners and Losers
February 24, 2011--Overview
Against a backdrop of continued recovery in the global economy and general improvements in corporate credit profiles, the recent sharp and sustained increase in a
basket of commodity prices represents a growing source of concern for fixed-income investors. Although core inflation measures in the U.S. and other developed economies remain largely in check (core CPI increased only
1.0% y-o-y as of January), input inflation across a broad range of agricultural, energy, and industrial commodities has spiked sharply and is expected to put increasing pressure on margins and end-user prices in a number of commodity-dependent sectors in 2011.
Numerous factors point to the likely continuation of commodity input inflation as a drag on selective U.S. corporate credit quality improvement this year. The Fed’s persistent commitment to monetary stimulus in the face of high U.S. unemployment, reflected in its decision to continue with its $600 billion program to purchase Treasury securities, as well as the unevenness of the global recovery, highlighted by the weakness of the U.S. labor market and slower growth in Europe, is driving a bias toward policy stimulus in the U.S. that will likely support strong commodity pricing in 2011. Recent U.S. tax policy initiatives, contributing to a widening of the fiscal 2011 federal budget deficit projection to $1.6 trillion, have reinforced this pro-cyclical tendency. In addition, white-hot growth rates in major emerging markets such as China and Brazil continue to push up demand for commodities ? from energy, steel, and copper to beef and cotton. Absent more aggressive contractionary policies in the largest emerging economies, the drivers of robust commodity demand in emerging markets appear set to remain in place.
Source: Fitch Ratings
February 2011 “Market’s Measure” Preliminary Report
February 24, 2011--A Monthly Report From Dow Jones Indexes On The Performance Of U.S., European, Asia And Other Global Stock Market Indexes - Dow Jones Industrial Average Posts 1.80% Gain in February, European Stocks Gain 1.19%, Asia Rises 1.83% and World Equities Rise by 1.67% - Oil & Gas Sector Posts Biggest Gain for February in U.S - Technology Sector Takes the Hardest Hit for February in Asia & Worldwide
As of February 23, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.80% in February, closing at 12105.78. Stock market indexes in Europe, Asia and globally were up in February, according to preliminary monthly figures from global index provider, Dow Jones Indexes.
Source: Mondovisione
February 2011 “Islamic Market’s Measure” Preliminary Report - Monthly Report On The Performance Of The Dow Jones Islamic Market Indexes
February 24, 2011--Based on the close of trading on February 22, the global Dow Jones Islamic Market Titans 100 Index, which measures the performance of 100 of the leading Shari’ah compliant stocks globally, gained
1.40% month-to-date, closing at 2326.40. In comparison, the Dow Jones Global Titans 50 Index, which measures the 50 biggest companies worldwide, posted a gain of 1.82%, closing at 185.87.
Source: Mondovisione
-Euro nears key resistance; Swiss franc touches record high
February 24, 2011--Dollar hits record low vs Swiss franc for 2nd straight day
Fall in oil prices from peaks lends dollar some support
Euro nears $1.3862 resitance, above that would be 3-½ mth high
Aussie hits 10-year high vs NZ dollar on diverging rate view
The euro edged closer to a key resistance against the dollar on Friday, supported by more inflation-fighting rhetoric from the European Central Bank, while the Swiss franc touched a new peak on fears the unrest in Libya may spread to other oil producers.
Source: Reuters
Fund Formation
February 24, 2011--The online report where fund managers, both established and emerging, examine the key steps to creating a succesful fund in the face of changing tax laws, market regulation and investor appetite.
In the first 5 months of 2010 1,300 new investment funds opened up, comparable to 1,000 closing. This is a turnaround for the investment industry which had seen many funds shut their doors after the financial crisis.
Any company looking to launch a new fund in late 2010 / early 2011 is likely to face restrictive legislation and unforeseeable legal changes not to mention investor sentiment that has shifted dramatically since pre-financial crisis times. ‘Fund Formation' is the first report to be written primarily by fund managers and end-investors about the prominent issues and challenges to consider when setting up a new investment fund Presented from a strategic, marketing and operational perspective, the report will assess the key drivers and issues and is set to include thought provoking ideas from some of the industry's most influential personalities.
Source: Clear Path Analysis
New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time-IMF Working paper
February 24, 2011--Summary: We develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle.
. In a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the indicators generally produce good GDP growth forecasts relative to a range of time series models.
view New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time-IMF Working paper
Source: IMF
February 2011 Monthly Preliminary Performance Report - Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Indexes
February 23, 2011--The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index was down 0.62% for the month of February. The Dow Jones-UBS Single Commodity Indexes for Cotton, Silver and Coffee, had the
strongest gains with month-to-date returns of 17.59%, 14.52%, and 10.53%, respectively. The three most
significant downside performing single commodity indexes were Natural Gas, Sugar and Crude Oil, which
were down 12.53%, 11.10%, and 6.60% respectively, in February.
Year to date, the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index is up 0.36% with the Dow Jones-UBS Cotton Sub- Index posting the highest gain of 36.78% so far in 2011. Dow Jones-UBS Natural Gas Sub-Index has the most significant downside YTD performance, down 12.57%.
Source: Mondovisione
NASDAQ OMX Appoints New Board Member
Borje Ekholm, President and CEO of Investor AB, Appointed to the NASDAQ OMX (Hold Co) Board
February 23, 2011--NASDAQ OMX (Nasdaq:NDAQ) today announced the addition of Borje Ekholm to the NASDAQ OMX board of directors following his confirmation by the board on February 17, 2011.
Mr. Ekholm is currently President and Chief Executive Officer of Investor AB, the Nordic-based industrial holding company, where he has held a variety of management positions since joining the firm in 1992. Prior to his current role, Mr. Ekholm was a Member of the Management Group of Investor AB, where he had oversight of the New Investments business and President of Novare Kapital AB, an early-stage venture capital company. Previously, Mr. Ekholm worked at McKinsey & Co Inc.
Mr. Ekholm has extensive experience in overseeing the activities of a company. He currently sits on the board of directors for Chalmersinvest AB, EQT Partners AB, Husqvarna AB, Lindorff Group AB, Scania AB, Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson and KTH Royal Institute of Technology.
"We are pleased to welcome Mr. Ekholm to the NASDAQ OMX Board of Directors," said Robert Greifeld, Chief Executive Officer, NASDAQ OMX. "Mr. Ekholm brings years of international management experience, and we look forward to the expertise he will add to the diversified skills and depth of knowledge of our board members."
NASDAQ OMX's board of directors is comprised of 16 members with the addition of Mr. Ekholm.
Source: NASDAQ OMX
Fiscal Policy during Absorption Cycles-IMF Working Paper
February 23, 2011--Domestic absorption cycles are relevant in assessment and design of fiscal policies. Our cross-country analysis covers 59 advanced and emerging countries for the 1990-2009 period. We show that ignoring domestic absorption cycles leads to biased fiscal stance indicators, for both advanced and emerging economies, by up to 1.5 percent of GDP.
The estimates of fiscal policy reaction functions indicate that absorption booms are associated with pro-cyclical fiscal policy. We tackle the endogeneity problem in reactions functions through stripping the cyclical component of the fiscal aggregates. We also find that simple filtering methods in the computation of absorption gaps perform as better as indirect methods of estimating trade balance gaps and stripping of output gaps.
Source: IMF