Global ETF News Older than One Year
Industrial Commodities Prices Should Stabilize in 2018 After This Year's Gains
November 16, 2017--Prices for industrial commodities-energy and metals-are forecast to level off in 2018 after steep gains this year, while agricultural prices are anticipated to remain soft.
Among the most salient trends affecting commodity prices now are the evolution of the U.S. shale oil industry and China's role as a major consumer of industrial commodities.
The emergence of the United States as a dominant player in the global oil market-it is now on par with Russia and Saudi Arabia-is shaping the oil price outlook. Oil is expected to average $56 per barrel in the coming year, up from an average of $53 per barrel in 2017.
Source: World Bank
IMF Working Papers-Booms, Crises, and Recoveries: A New Paradigm of the Business Cycle and its Policy Implications
November 16, 2017--Summary:
All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses.
These findings have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. A new paradigm of the business cycle needs to account for shifts in trend output and the puzzling inconsistency of output dynamics with other cyclical components of production. The 'output gap' can be ill-conceived, poorly measured, and inconsistent over time. Persistent losses require more buffers and crisis-avoidance policies, affecting tradeoffs in prudential, macroeconomic, and reserve management policies. The frequency and depth of crises are key determinants of long-term growth and drive a new stylized model of economic development.
Source: IMF
IMF Working paper-Fear Thy Neighbor: Spillovers from Economic Policy Uncertainty
November 15, 2017--Summary:
High levels of economic policy uncertainty in various parts of the world revamped the debate about its impact on economic activity. With increasingly stronger economic, financial, and political ties among countries, economic agents have more reasons to be vigilant of foreign economic policy. Employing heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregressions, this paper tests for spillovers from economic policy uncertainty on other countries' economic activity.
Furthermore, using local projections, the paper zooms in on shocks originating in the United States, Europe, and China. Our results suggest that economic policy uncertainty re-duces growth in real output, private consumption, and private investment, and that spillovers from abroad account for about two-thirds of the negative effect. Moreover, uncertainty in the United States, Europe, and China reduces economic activity in the rest of the world, with the effects being mostly felt in Europe and the Western Hemisphere.
view the IMF Working paper-Fear Thy Neighbor: Spillovers from Economic Policy Uncertainty
Source: IMF
IMF Working Papers-Basel III and Bank-Lending: Evidence from the United States and Europe
November 15, 2017--Summary:
Using data on commercial banks in the United States and Europe, this paper analyses the impact of the new Basel III capital and liquidity regulation on bank-lending following the 2008 financial crisis.
We find that U.S. banks reinforce their risk absorption capacities when expanding their credit activities. Capital ratios have significant, negative impacts on bank-retail-and-other-lending-growth for large European banks in the context of deleveraging and the "credit crunch" in Europe over the post-2008 financial crisis period. Additionally, liquidity indicators have positive but perverse effects on bank-lending-growth, which supports the need to consider heterogeneous banks' characteristics and behaviors when implementing new regulatory policies.
Source: IMF
The Conflict-Free Gold Standard: Building an industry coalition to address the challenges of conflict gold
November 15, 2017--Cranfield School of Management and the Corporate Responsibility Initiative at Harvard Kennedy School launched a joint report examining the creation of the Conflict-Free Gold Standard by the World Gold Council.
The report provides an important case study for Corporate Responsibility Coalitions and trade associations looking to develop common standards and self-regulatory mechanisms.
Source: World Gold Council (WGC)
IMF Working Papers-The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery
November 15, 2017--Summary:
Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth.
This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural approach. Both analytical investigations suggest that the overall weakness in economic activity, particularly investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for over 80 percent of the decline in the growth of the volume of goods trade between 2012-16 and 2003-07. However, other factors are also weighing on trade in recent years, especially in emerging market and developing economies, as evidenced by the non-negligible role attributed to trade costs by the structural approach.
view the IMF Working Papers-The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery
Source: IMF
IEA-A world in transformation: World Energy Outlook 2017
November 14, 2017--The resurgence in oil and gas production from the United States, deep declines in the cost of renewables and growing electrification are changing the face of the global energy system and upending traditional ways of meeting energy demand, according to the World Energy Outlook 2017.
A cleaner and more diversified energy mix in China is another major driver of this transformation. Over the next 25 years, the world's growing energy needs are met first by renewables and natural gas, as fast-declining costs turn solar power into the cheapest source of new electricity generation. Global energy demand is 30% higher by 2040-but still half as much as it would have been without efficiency improvements.
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA)
Ultumus-Paradigm lists leveraged in Taiwan, PowerShares lists fixed income in UK
November 14, 2017--Asia
Paradigm lists leveraged oil ETFs
Taiwanese issuer Paradigm has listed two new ETFs in Taiwan that give inverse and leveraged exposure to oil futures. They are:
Paradigm S&P GSCI Brent Crude 2X Leveraged ER Futures ETF (00715L)
Paradigm S&P GSCI Brent Crude 1X Inverse ER Futures ETF (00716R)
Listing leveraged commodity funds that use derivatives is quite common among Taiwanese issuers....
UK
PowerShares lists three fixed income ETFs on the London Stock Exchange
Invesco PowerShares is listing three new fixed income ETFs on the LSX. They are:
PowerShares USD Corporate Bond UCITS ETF (PUIG), which tracks the Bloomberg Barclays USD IG Corporate Liquidity Screened Bond Index.
PowerShares Euro Corporate Bond UCITS ETF (PSFE), which tracks the Bloomberg Barclays Euro Corporate Bond Index...
Source: ULTUMUS-Financial Data Management
OPEC-Monthly Oil Market Report-November 2017
November 13, 2017--Oil Market Highlights
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and
reaching the highest value in more than two-and-a-half years, with a year-to-date average of $50.68/b.
Crude futures also reached levels not seen since mid-2015. ICE Brent ended $2.13 higher at $57.65/b, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.72, reaching $51.59/b, keeping the Brent-WTI spread above $6/b. Prices have been supported by rising global demand data and expectations that major producing nations will extend a deal to adjust output and bring the oil market to a balance. Hedge funds raised net long positions in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures and options by 29,456 and 21,592 contracts, respectively, to 281,244 and 530,237 lots.
Source: OPEC
World Gold Council-Gold-backed ETF holdings increased by 3.3t in October
November 13, 2017--Our monthly analysis of gold-backed ETFs and similar products, provides detailed information and insight on global trends of gold investment demand through ETFs.
Regional fund flows
Europe led inflows in October, as investors added 11.2t (+$523mn, 1.3% AUM) of gold through funds listed in the region
There were outflows in North America of 8.0t (-$305mn, -0.59% AUM), reversing some of its September gains.
Asia funds gained 0.8t (+$33.8mn, 1.04% AUM). ETFs in other regions lost -0.7t (-$30.7mn, -1.71% AUM)
Individual fund flows
iShares Physical Gold ETC added 4.1t (+$170.3mn, 5.8% AUM)
ETFS Physical Gold added 4.1t (+$168.1mn, 2.9% AUM)
ETFS EUR Hedged Physical Gold added 1.9t, increasing their AUM by over 50%, and ETFS GBP Daily Hedged Physical Gold added 0.7t, increasing their AUM by 23%, both on the back of a stronger USD
iShares Gold Trust added 5.8t (+$240mn, 2.55% AUM), while SPDR(R) Long Dollar Gold Trust increased holdings by 8%
Source: World Gold Council (WGC)
