A Few White Papers
you are currently viewing::IMF Working Paper-Population Aging and Pension Reforms in ChinaFebruary 20, 2026--China is experiencing rapid population aging and a declining workforce, posing significant economic and fiscal challenges, especially to the pension system. This paper examines the evolution of China's pension system, assesses its gaps relative to international peers, and evaluates the macro-fiscal implications of population aging and various pension reforms. Using a calibrated overlapping generations model that explicitly incorporates the rural-urban disparities, we project that population aging alone can slow annual GDP growth by about 2 percentage points between 2024 and 2050, while pension spending can rise by nearly 10 percentage points of GDP. The 2024 retirement age reform eases some of the long-term growth and fiscal sustainability pressures, raising GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points annually and reducing pension spending from 15.3 percent to 11.9 percent of GDP by 2050. We also use the model to examine a set of policy-relevant reforms-doubling Residents Pension Scheme benefits which are currently inadequate, linking benefits to life expectancy, further increasing the retirement age, and promoting urbanization-and find significant effects on fiscal and macroeconomic outcomes. Source: imf.org |
Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030
January 12, 2025-Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 explores how the powerful interplay between geopolitical shifts and rapid technological change is reshaping the global economic landscape.
The Multi-Trillion Dollar Growth Opportunity: New Report Shows Green Economy Expected to Surpass $7 Trillion in Annual Value by 2030
December 2, 2025-New report reveals that green revenues are growing twice as fast as conventional revenues on average, while companies involved in green markets often secure cheaper capital and typically enjoy valuation premiums.
Yet green markets are moving at different speeds, with mature solutions such as solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles achieving cost competitiveness at the global level, while costly technologies such as low-carbon hydrogen and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) require substantial support to bend the cost curve.
