A Few White Papers
you are currently viewing::IMF Working Paper-Lifting Binding Constraints on Growth in Europe: Actionable Priorities to Deepen the Single MarketJune 13, 2025--Summary To address these constraints and facilitate firms' cross border scale up, investment and innovation, the paper proposes key action areas for deepening the integration of the single market, including lowering regulatory fragmentation, advancing the capital markets union, enhancing labor mobility within the EU, and integrating the EU energy market. Through illustrative scenarios, the paper highlights that a few actionable steps along these dimensions could lead off the process of deeper integration and deliver a meaningful initial payoff by increasing the EU GDP level relative to baseline by around 3 percent over 10 years-a sizable improvement considering that the EU potential growth is projected to be just above 1 percent annually over this horizon. Source: IMF.org |
IMF Working Paper-Interest Rate Sensitivity Scenarios to Guide Monetary Policy
May 30, 2025--Summary
This paper examines the challenges of formulating monetary policy in the face of heightened uncertainty. We develop a framework to assess the optimal monetary policy path under uncertainty, focusing on four key dimensions: the expectation formation process, inflation persistence, the measurement of the neutral interest rate, and the slope of the Phillips curve.
IMF Working Paper-The Rise and Retreat of US Inflation: An Update
May 16, 2025--Summary
Why did US inflation rise over 2021-22 and why has it retreated since then? Ball, Leigh, and Mishra (2022), writing near the inflation peak, explained the rise with a framework in which inflation depends on three factors: long-term expectations; the tightness of the labor market as measured by the vacancy-to-unemployment (V/U) ratio; and large changes in relative prices in particular industries such as energy and autos.
IMF Working Paper-Growth, Interrupted: How Crises delay Global Convergence
June 13, 2025--Summary
During a major crisis, the transitional dynamics of conditional convergence are unlikely to apply. In this paper, we introduce a Markov chain approach which integrates the study of crises and convergence. We allow upwards and downwards mobility to change when a country enters a crisis regime. .
Assessing Thailand's Debt Ceiling-Room for Recalibration?
May 9, 2025--Summary
The pandemic responses and subsequent fiscal stimulus measures have eroded Thailand's fiscal space, pushing its public debt close to the ceiling of 70 percent of GDP. While this situation generally calls for fiscal prudence to reduce debt levels, it also raises questions about the adequacy of the current debt ceiling.
The Energy Origins of the Global Inflation Surge
May 9, 2025--Summary
This paper investigates the relationship between energy prices and inflation dynamics in the context of the global inflation surge during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a comprehensive sector-level dataset covering over 30 countries and a local projections empirical strategy, we extend previous studies that primarily focused on single-country analyses or aggregate inflation measures.
Missing Home-Buyers and Rent Inflation: The Role of Interest Rates and Mortgage Underwriting Standards
May 9, 2025--Summary
Alessia De Stefani has studied how monetary policy interacts with mortgage underwriting standards in shaping tenure decisions and rental market equilibria. Using property-level data from the American Housing Survey, I show that the increase in mortgage rates between 2021 and 2023 pushed many potential first-time home-buyers above FHA mortgage payment-to-income limits, restricting their access to home-ownership.
Hong Kong SAR's Economy in the Face of Climate Change: Risks and Prospects
May 6, 2025--Hong Kong SAR is facing ongoing challenges from climate change, with projections indicating that these issues will remain prevalent or even intensify in the future. In response, Hong Kong SAR has embraced a comprehensive three-pronged climate strategy-the Climate Action Plan 2050--that focuses on mitigation, adaptation, and building resilience, and sets ambitious goals of reducing carbon emissions by 50 percent before 2035 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2050.
Impact Dynamics of Natural Disasters and the Case of Pacific Island Countries
May 2, 2025--
Summary
This paper investigates the short-and medium-term economic impacts of natural disasters, focusing on Pacific Island Countries (PICs) and using global high-frequency nightlight data in addition to macroeconomic data. In this paper, we identify significant short--term effects on growth following natural disasters, which are exacerbated by high public debt and heightened climate vulnerability.
Langham Hall -Trends in venture capital fund terms report
April 22, 2025--Langham Hall is delighted to present a research report on venture capital ('VC') fund terms, including trends in both management fees and carried interest. The report has been produced in conjunction with leading VC law firm Osborne Clarke, and contains data from over 60 European VC funds.
IMF Working Papers-Inflation Targeting and the Legacy of High Inflation
April 11, 2025-Summary
As inflation targeting (IT) turns 35, it has become a key institutional monetary framework by central banks. Yet, this paper shows that stark differences exist among inflation targeting countries in the conduct of monetary policy. Behind such heterogeneity, the legacy of a high inflation history appears as a preponderant factor.
