A Few White Papers
you are currently viewing::Impact Dynamics of Natural Disasters and the Case of Pacific Island CountriesMay 2, 2025--
Summary Although the negative impacts generally diminish within a year for most countries, PICs face disproportionately larger and rising short-term disruptions (-1.4 percent of annual potential growth) and persistent medium-term consequences. Further analysis of PIC's' fiscal, external, and real sectors following severe disasters using annual economic data reveals that weaker fiscal positions, partly driven by reduced output, may lead to an upward trend in public debt, and increased imports may deteriorate current account balances over the medium term. These findings underscore the need for robust counter-cyclical policies and proactive investments in climate resilience to mitigate the adverse effects of climate shocks and promote long-term economic stability Source: IMF.org |
Assessing Thailand's Debt Ceiling-Room for Recalibration?
May 9, 2025--Summary
The pandemic responses and subsequent fiscal stimulus measures have eroded Thailand's fiscal space, pushing its public debt close to the ceiling of 70 percent of GDP. While this situation generally calls for fiscal prudence to reduce debt levels, it also raises questions about the adequacy of the current debt ceiling.
The Energy Origins of the Global Inflation Surge
May 9, 2025--Summary
This paper investigates the relationship between energy prices and inflation dynamics in the context of the global inflation surge during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a comprehensive sector-level dataset covering over 30 countries and a local projections empirical strategy, we extend previous studies that primarily focused on single-country analyses or aggregate inflation measures.
Missing Home-Buyers and Rent Inflation: The Role of Interest Rates and Mortgage Underwriting Standards
May 9, 2025--Summary
Alessia De Stefani has studied how monetary policy interacts with mortgage underwriting standards in shaping tenure decisions and rental market equilibria. Using property-level data from the American Housing Survey, I show that the increase in mortgage rates between 2021 and 2023 pushed many potential first-time home-buyers above FHA mortgage payment-to-income limits, restricting their access to home-ownership.
Hong Kong SAR's Economy in the Face of Climate Change: Risks and Prospects
May 6, 2025--Hong Kong SAR is facing ongoing challenges from climate change, with projections indicating that these issues will remain prevalent or even intensify in the future. In response, Hong Kong SAR has embraced a comprehensive three-pronged climate strategy-the Climate Action Plan 2050--that focuses on mitigation, adaptation, and building resilience, and sets ambitious goals of reducing carbon emissions by 50 percent before 2035 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2050.
Langham Hall -Trends in venture capital fund terms report
April 22, 2025--Langham Hall is delighted to present a research report on venture capital ('VC') fund terms, including trends in both management fees and carried interest. The report has been produced in conjunction with leading VC law firm Osborne Clarke, and contains data from over 60 European VC funds.
IMF Working Papers-Inflation Targeting and the Legacy of High Inflation
April 11, 2025-Summary
As inflation targeting (IT) turns 35, it has become a key institutional monetary framework by central banks. Yet, this paper shows that stark differences exist among inflation targeting countries in the conduct of monetary policy. Behind such heterogeneity, the legacy of a high inflation history appears as a preponderant factor.
Navigating Trade-Offs between Price and Financial Stability in Times of High Inflation
April 11, 2025-Summary
Trade-offs between price and financial stability can occur when inflation is above target and financial stress is rising. Use of central bank liquidity tools and other financial stability policies may, under some circumstances, allow central banks to maintain their inflation fighting stance, while addressing financial stress. However, challenges in deploying these tools and specific country characteristics may hinder central banks’ ability to achieve both price and financial stability.
IMF Working Papers-The Global Impact of AI: Mind the Gap
April 11, 2025-Summary
This paper examines the uneven global impact of AI, highlighting how its effects will be a function of (i) countries' sectoral exposure to AI, (ii) their preparedness to integrate these technologies into their economies, and (iii) their access to essential data and technologies.
The Research Behavior of Individual Investors- Toomas Laarits & Jeffrey Wurgler
March 31, 2025--Browser data from an approximately representative sample of individual investors offers a detailed account of their search for information, including how much time they spend on stock research, which stocks they research, what categories of information they seek, and when they gather information relative to events and trades. The median individual investor spends approximately six minutes on research per trade on traded tickers, mostly just before the trade; the mean spends around half an hour.
Could Digital Currencies Lead to the Disappearance of Cash from the Market?
March 21, 2025-Summary
Private and public agents' plans and actions to introduce digital currencies and other innovative payment instruments could produce some unintended consequences, including the potential disappearance of physical cash. This study employs a two-sided market model to examine how payment systems might respond to new currencies.
