A Few White Papers
you are currently viewing::IMF Working Paper-Not all Housing Cycles are Created Equal: Macroeconomic Consequences of Housing BoomsFebruary 28, 2025-Summary Analyzing 180 housing expansions across 68 countries, we classify 49 percent as housing booms, characterized by rapid and persistent real house price increases. We find that economic downturns are significantly deeper and longer when housing contractions are preceded by a housing boom. The housing contraction is more severe the more intensive the preceding housing boom, and when accompanied by a credit boom. Overall, while housing booms spur stronger economic growth during the expansion phase, their sharp reversals lead to severe housing contractions, resulting in significant net negative effects on the real economy. Source: imf.org |
Langham Hall -Trends in venture capital fund terms report
April 22, 2025—Langham Hall is delighted to present a research report on venture capital (‘VC') fund terms, including trends in both management fees and carried interest. The report has been produced in conjunction with leading VC law firm Osborne Clarke, and contains data from over 60 European VC funds.
IMF Working Papers-Inflation Targeting and the Legacy of High Inflation
April 11, 2025-Summary
As inflation targeting (IT) turns 35, it has become a key institutional monetary framework by central banks. Yet, this paper shows that stark differences exist among inflation targeting countries in the conduct of monetary policy. Behind such heterogeneity, the legacy of a high inflation history appears as a preponderant factor.
Navigating Trade-Offs between Price and Financial Stability in Times of High Inflation
April 11, 2025-Summary
Trade-offs between price and financial stability can occur when inflation is above target and financial stress is rising. Use of central bank liquidity tools and other financial stability policies may, under some circumstances, allow central banks to maintain their inflation fighting stance, while addressing financial stress. However, challenges in deploying these tools and specific country characteristics may hinder central banks’ ability to achieve both price and financial stability.
IMF Working Papers-The Global Impact of AI: Mind the Gap
April 11, 2025-Summary
This paper examines the uneven global impact of AI, highlighting how its effects will be a function of (i) countries' sectoral exposure to AI, (ii) their preparedness to integrate these technologies into their economies, and (iii) their access to essential data and technologies.
Could Digital Currencies Lead to the Disappearance of Cash from the Market?
March 21, 2025-Summary
Private and public agents' plans and actions to introduce digital currencies and other innovative payment instruments could produce some unintended consequences, including the potential disappearance of physical cash. This study employs a two-sided market model to examine how payment systems might respond to new currencies.
IMF Note-Fund Investor Types and Bond Market Volatility
March 12, 2025-Summary
This note explores the connection between the varied investor profiles of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and open-ended mutual funds (OEMFs) and the return volatility of the securities they hold. Based on the security-level data of US ETF and OEMF holdings, the analysis suggests that, on aggregate, a higher ETF ownership share may be associated with lower bond return volatility.
Pension Reform and Stock Market Development
February 28, 2025-Summary
We highlight the strong connection between developing fully-funded, individually-owned, collectively-managed, mandatory/incentivized (FICMI) pension schemes and the development of domestic stock markets. We do so by building a stylized model and complementing the analysis with cross-country empirical analysis and case studies.
IMF Working Paper-Understanding the Macroeconomic Effects of Natural Disasters
February 21, 2025-Summary
Climate change is causing more frequent and devastating natural disasters. The goal of this paper is two-fold. First, it examines the dynamic effects of natural disasters on the growth of output and its components. Government expenditure in advanced economies (AEs) rises immediately in the same year of the natural disaster, offsetting the decline in private investment growth and thereby mitigating the negative effect on output growth.
IMF Working Paper-Prometheus Unbound: What Makes Fintech Grow?
February 21, 2025-Summary
The rise of financial technologies-fintech-could have transformative effects on the financial landscape, expanding the reach of services beyond the confines of geography and creating new competitive sources of finance for households and firms. But what makes fintech grow? Why do some countries have more financial innovation than others?
White Paper-Monetary Policy Predicts Currency Movements
February 9, 2025--Abstract
The relative restrictiveness of a central bank's supply of money predicts the raw and risk-adjusted returns of its currency-both next month and at least three years into the future.
