A Few White Papers
you are currently viewing::White Paper-Monetary Policy Predicts Currency MovementsFebruary 9, 2025--Abstract
Archived data, known by currency traders at the time, estimates central bank restrictiveness as a scaling of the residual from out-of-sample panel regressions of M1 on macroeconomic variables tied to domestic and international transaction requirements. Carry's ability to forecast currency returns is subsumed by the central bank restrictiveness signal, which also forecasts inflation. Source: ssrn.com |
Social Security Reforms, Retirement and Sectoral Decisions
January 31, 2025--Summary
In many countries, the regulations governing pension systems, hiring procedures, and job contracts differ between the public and private sectors. Public sector employees tend to have longer tenures and higher wages compared to workers in the private sector.
As such, social security reforms can affect both retirement decisions and sectoral choices. We study the effects of social security reforms on retirement and sectoral behavior in an economy with multiple pension systems.
IMF Working Paper-Tokenization and Financial Market Inefficiencies
January 29, 2025--Summary
Most financial assets are digital today. Tomorrow, they may be tokenized. Tokenization implies recording and transferring assets on a widely shared and trusted digital ledger that can be programmed. Interest in tokenization is strong and experiments abound, but what are the consequences of this new trend for financial markets?
IMF Working paper-Long-Term Debt and Short-Term Rates: Fixed-Rate Mortgages and Monetary Transmission
January 24, 2016--Summary
We study the two-way relationship between fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) and monetary policy in a panel of up to 35 countries over the last two decades. The dataset includes quarterly information on the composition of mortgage flows and stock by type of rate-fixation and monetary policy shocks cleaned of information effects.
Spillovers from Large Emerging Economies: How Dominant Is China?
January 24, 2016--Summary
This paper investigates the global economic spillovers emanating from G20 emerging markets (G20-EMs), with a particular emphasis on the comparative influence of China. Employing a Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, we assess the impacts of both demand-side and supply-side shocks across 63 countries, capturing the nuanced dynamics of global economic interactions. Our findings reveal that China's contribution to global economic spillovers significantly overshadows that of other G20-EMs.
