|DB - Equity Research-Weekly & Monthly European ETF Market Monitors: European ETF industry gets a fresh start in January-continued|
|February 10, 2012--ETF month in perspective|
2012: A fresh start for the European ETF industry
January brought a very strong start to the year for the global (US, Europe and Asia) ETF industry. ETF assets grew by 8.1% over January 2012, a growth rate that surpassed the overall 2011 year growth rate of 3.1%. Global ETF assets reached $1.4 trillion as of the end of January 2011, up from $1.3 trillion at the end of 2011.
|Both the US as well as the European ETF industries grew by 8.2% and 6.5%, reaching asset levels of $1.0 trillion and €221.3 billion respectively. Most of the growth came from rebounding equity markets, however, flows accounted for 2.9% of the growth in the US market and for 1.1% of the growth in the European market (US$ terms). Cash flows for the US market totaled $27.1 billion and €2.4 billion for the European market, for the month of January.
The performance of the European ETF market in the first month of 2012 was sharply different from how it ended the previous year. European ETFs registered outflows of €2.2 billion over December 2011, a decline that was largely driven by equity outflows (€1.8 billion). This situation was reversed in January 2012, with equities contributing €1.5 of net inflows towards the new money that flowed into the European ETF industry.
The January 2012 European ETF industry fresh start was mainly driven by two factors. First, overall market conditions improved somewhat, with the Euro Stoxx 50 delivering gains of 4.3%. Better market conditions helped bring ETF investors out of their shell and allocate money back in the equity market. Second, the European Securities and Markets Authority, ESMA, issued its second consultation on ETFs. ESMA’s publication of its views provided comfort to investors as it gave an indication both about the regulatory body’s future intentions as well as its views with regards to perceived ETF risks.
Overall, the ESMA consultation was deemed to be balanced, avoiding any dramatic changes in the European ETF market, especially those that would put it at odds with how mutual funds operate under UCITS. The consultation provided further evidence that ESMA, through ETFs, which are perceived to be the golden standard in the fund industry, is looking to 'tidy-up' a number of wider fund management industry issues, such as tracking capacity and fund construction, primarily pertaining to total return swaps and securities lending practices .
ETF Industry: The month’s investment trends
The US Market: Flows across the board, from domestic to emerging markets
The US ETF industry registered strong cash flows in the first month of the year totaling $27 billion. Investors favor for risky assets continued in January with equities having the lion’s share in cash inflows ($19.3 billion).
US ETF equity flows were quite diversified, with both domestic as well as emerging markets benefiting. US domestic benchmarked equity ETFs brought inflows of $11.5 billion, while emerging market benchmarked equity ETFs saw inflows of $5.7 billion. Sectors also did well, attracting new money totaling $3.2 billion.
Fixed Income ETFs collected a healthy $7.7 billion in cash inflows; a healthy increase over the $6 billion inflows received in December. Commodity ETVs had a positive month, receiving cash inflows in excess of $1.5 billion which is in sharp contrast to last month’s pattern where commodities registered outflows of $2.7 billion.
For more information about analysis and trends in the US ETF market please refer to our US ETF Market Monthly Review.
The European Market: Emerging Markets main flow growth driver
Equity markets across Europe had a very positive run over the month registering advances across the board: DAX (? 9.5%), CAC (? 4.4%), Euro Stoxx 50 (? 4.3%) and the FTSE 100 Index (? 2.0%). Gold and silver spot prices (US$/oz), also appreciated by 9.8% and 17.6% respectively.
The European ETF industry improved on its poor run in December (outflows of €2.1 billion) and received cash inflows of €2.4 billion in January. Most of the flows went into ETFs tracking equity benchmarks (€1.5 billion) with healthy contributions by other asset classes; Fixed Income ETFs (€412 million), commodities (€331 million) and alternatives (€159 million).
Within equities, emerging markets (EM) benchmarks were back in vogue, collecting cash inflows of €904 million in January. The BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India & China) collectively pocketed cash inflows of €365 million while ETFs tracking broad benchmarks like the MSCI EM collected €385 million over the same period. Within ETFs tracking developed markets (DM) benchmarks, a clear divergence was visible: ETFs focused on North American region which includes US & Canada received cash inflows of €672 million while ETFs tracking European benchmarks registered outflows of €663 million. ETFs tracking broader DM benchmarks such as MSCI World received net cash inflows of €107 million over the month of January.
ETFs tracking European sectors registered cash inflows of €171 million in January as compared to outflows of €166 million in the month of December.
Despite the positive equity markets and healthy flows, a hint of bearishness continues to persist as evident from the flows into leveraged and inverse products. ETFs providing inverse and leveraged inverse exposure pocketed inflows of €272 million and €282 million in January respectively. On the other hand ETFs providing leveraged exposure registered cash outflows of €332 million.
Fixed Income ETFs registered cash inflows of €412 million over January as compared to outflows of €404 million in December 2011. ETFs tracking corporate debt issuances and sub-sovereigns collected inflows of €588 million and €117 million respectively. Money market & sovereign ETFs registered outflows of €249 million and €144 million respectively.
Commodity ETPs received cash inflows totaling €498 million in January which is marginally higher than the €198 million received in December 2011. Most of the inflows were into products tracking crude oil (€211 million) and diversified commodity indices (€131 million).
ETP investors approached gold products with caution in January, evident from the inflows totaling €56 million which is significantly lower than the €623 million received in December 2011.
ETF comparatives: Mutual Funds, cash equity turnover
European ETF turnover is 8.0% of the region’s cash equities turnover as of the end of January 2012. The equivalent number for the US market stands at 24.5%.
European ETFs comprised 2.8% of the continent’s mutual fund industry, yet ETF cash flows, €17.7 billion from Jan-Nov 2011, was over 1.4x higher than the corresponding unlisted fund flows (- €44 billion). European unlisted mutual funds registered outflows of close to €138 billion in the months of Aug-Nov 2011. Mutual fund industry data as per the European Fund Management Association (EFAMA).
US ETFs comprised 8.1% of the its mutual fund industry, yet ETF cash flows, $113 billion for 2011, was over 4.7x higher than the corresponding unlisted fund flows ($24 billion). Mutual fund industry data as per the Investment Company Institute (ICI).
|Source: Christos Costandinides, European Head of ETF Research & Strategy, Deutsche Bank|
|Europe ETP News|
|Forecasts for the UK economy: August 2014|
|August 20, 2014--Forecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts. This edition contains forecasts to 2018.|
|Deutsche Borse launches US Dollar hedged version of HDAX|
|August 19, 2014--Deutsche Börse today launched the HDAX Hedged USD Index, which measures the performance of the underlying HDAX while eliminating foreign currency fluctuations. The HDAX Index measures all 110 stocks listed in the DAX, MDAX and TecDAX indices, representing more than 95 percent of Germany's free-float market capitalization.|
|Two new db x-trackers equity index ETFs launched on Xetra|
|ETFs provide access to S&P 500 Equal Weight and MSCI World Index
August 14, 2014--Two new db x-trackers from the ETF section of Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management have been tradable in the XTF segment on Xetra since Thursday.
ETF name: db x-trackers S&P 500 Equal Weight UCITS ETF (DR)
Asset class: equity index ETF
|Two new ETNs from Boost launched on Xetra|
|ETNs track the inverse performance of German and US government bonds|
August 11, 2014--Two new ETNs issued by Boost have been tradable on Xetra since Friday. The new products refer to indices in the BNP Paribas Future index family and give investors access to the inverse performance of 1-month futures contracts on German and US government bonds with a leverage factor of three.
|Equity research undergoes big structural changes|
|August 11, 2014--The business of equity research is undergoing big structural change as a result of regulation, which is hitting at the investment banking model and playing into the hands of independent groups.|
|ESMA publishes translations of AIFMD guidelines|
|August 8, 2014--Today ESMA published the official translations of ESMA's guidelines on reporting obligations under Articles 3 and 24(1),(2) and (4) of the AIFMD (ESMA/2014/869).|
|UK Official holdings of international reserves: July 2014|
|July 5, 2014--In summary, this month's release shows that in July 2014:
No intervention operations were undertaken.
|Almost 90% of UK active managers beat the stock market|
|August 3, 2014--Almost 90 per cent of UK active equity fund managers beat the UK stock market last year, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.|
|ESMA publishes an update of its Guidelines on ETFs and other UCITS issues|
|August 1, 2014--This guidelines published today are an update of the guidelines originally published in 2012.|
|Turnover at Deutsche Boerse cash markets at 99.1 billion euros in July|
|August 1, 2014--Order book turnover on Xetra, the Frankfurt Stock Exchange and Tradegate stood at €99.1 billion in July (July 2013: €98.5 billion). Of the €99.1 billion, €91.3 billion were attributable to Xetra (July 2013: €90.9 billion). €4.1 billion were attributable to the Frankfurt Stock Exchange (July 2013: €4.1 billion).|
|The Joint Committee of the ESAs reminds financial institutions of their responsibilities when placing their own financial products with consumers|
|July 31, 2014--The Joint Committee of the ESAs reminds financial institutions of their responsibilities when placing their own financial products with consumers.|
|Potential Risks Associated with Investing in Contingent Convertible Instruments|
|July 31, 2014--The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) is issuing this statement to clarify to institutional investors risks from a newly emerging asset class referred to by most market participants as contingent convertibles instruments (CoCos).|
|Business Climate Indicator decreases marginally in July|
|July 30, 2014--In July 2014 the Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area decreased marginally by 0.04 points to +0.17. Managers' more optimistic views on expected production and, to a lesser extent, the current level of overall order books were offset by an important decline in their assessments of past production.|
|July 2014: Economic Sentiment stable in the euro area, decreasing slightly in the EU|
|July 30, 2014--In July the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) remained broadly stable in the euro area (+0.1 points at 102.2),1 while it decreased slightly in the EU (by 0.6 points to 105.8). |
Euro area developments
The virtually flat euro area outcome perpetuates the sideways movement observed in recent months.
|IMF-United Kingdom: Selected Issues|
|July 28, 2014--HOUSING AND BUSINESS CYCLES: IS THE UK
DIFFERENT FROM OTHER ADVANCED ECONOMIES?1|
In contrast to other OECD countries, housing cycles in the UK are marked by sharp movements in prices and an inelastic response of residential investment, owing notably to supply constraints. Housing cycles in the UK also tend to have a large impact on economic activity, with booms generally associated with a worsening of household balance sheets and a rise in relatively high-risk mortgages.