World Bank Group-Development Economics-Prospects Group

July 30, 2025--Overview
The global growth outlook for 2025 remains weak as trade-related headwinds and elevated policy uncertainty continue to weigh on manufacturing and services activity.
High-frequency indicators point to decelerating economic activity in many emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).

Yet, global financial conditions generally eased in June and July, and risk appetite has remained robust across many advanced economies and EMDEs.

Special Focus: Macroeconomic and Development Challenges in FCS Economies

The 39 EMDEs currently classified as being in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS), home to more than one billion people, are a mix of low- and middle-income economies spread across all regions.

FCS economies have lagged other EMDEs in many measures of macroeconomic performance for decades. Growth is slower and more volatile. Capital formation and job creation are lower. Together, weak state capacity and slow, erratic growth constrain governments' ability to raise revenue, contributing to high risk of debt distress.

Global poverty and food insecurity are increasingly concentrated in FCS economies, where insufficient investment in education and health are undermining human development.

Goods trade growth set to moderate as barometer index dips

November 28, 2025-Goods trade growth appears to have slowed in the second half of 2025 following a surge in the first half driven by frontloading of imports ahead of expected tariff hikes and by rising demand for AI-related products, according to the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer.