World Bank Prospects Group Global Monthly-April 2025

April 30, 2025--Overview
In a context of rising trade tensions and heightened policy uncertainty, private sector forecasters have revised down near-term growth forecasts markedly.
Global financial market volatility spiked in April amid shifts in trade policy.
Commodity prices declined substantially, reflecting concerns about weakening demand and, in some cases, ample supply.

Special Focus: Synchronization of Business Cycles in EMDEs and the Rest of the World

Emerging market and developing economies' (EMDEs') increasing trade and financial integration with the rest of the world over recent decades has been accompanied by greater comovement of economic activity across EMDEs.

Although EMDEs' business cycles are increasingly synchronized, GDP growth in EMDEs still tends to be more correlated with growth in advanced economies (AEs).

Growth variation across economies can be attributed to three factors: a global factor capturing common cyclical movements across all economies; a group factor specific to AEs or EMDEs; and a factor specific to each economy. For EMDEs, the group factor has become increasingly important.

Goods trade growth set to moderate as barometer index dips

November 28, 2025-Goods trade growth appears to have slowed in the second half of 2025 following a surge in the first half driven by frontloading of imports ahead of expected tariff hikes and by rising demand for AI-related products, according to the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer.