IEA-Oil Market Report-April 2025

April 15, 2025--Highlights
Global oil demand growth for 2025 has been revised down by 300 kb/d since last month's Report to 730 kb/d, as escalating trade tensions have negatively impacted the economic outlook. Growth is expected to slow further in 2026, to 690 kb/d, but risks to the forecasts remain rife given the fast-moving macro backdrop. The downgrade comes on the heels of robust oil consumption in 1Q25, up by 1.2 mb/d y-o-y-its strongest rate since 2023.

World oil supply rose by 590 kb/d to 103.6 mb/d in March, up 910 kb/d y-o-y, with non-OPEC+ leading both monthly and annual gains. OPEC+ will lift output targets by 411 kb/d in May, but the increase may be substantially lower given overproduction by some countries. Global supply growth for 2025 has been cut by 260 kb/d to 1.2 mb/d, due to a decrease in US and Venezuelan output. Production in 2026 is set to rise by 960 kb/d, with offshore projects taking the lead.

Global crude runs are forecast to average 83.2 mb/d this year, as demand growth expectations cut the projected annual increase by 230 kb/d to 340 kb/d. In 2026, throughputs are set to rise by 360 kb/d to 83.6 mb/d. Refining margins were mixed in March, with declines in the Atlantic Basin but gains for processing sour crude in Singapore. Weaker middle distillate cracks drove much of last month's decline in profitability.