As One Cycle Ends, Another Begins Amid Growing Divergence

January 17, 2025--Growth divergences persist and could widen, while policy shifts may reignite inflation pressures in some countries
We project global growth will remain steady at 3.3 percent this year and next, broadly aligned with potential growth that has substantially weakened since before the pandemic. Inflation is declining, to 4.2 percent this year and 3.5 percent next year, in a return to central bank targets that will allow further normalization of monetary policy.

This will help draw to a close the global disruptions of recent years, including the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which precipitated the largest inflation surge in four decades.

Though the global growth outlook is broadly unchanged from October, divergences across countries are widening. Among advanced economies, the United States is stronger than previously projected on continued strength in domestic demand. We have raised our growth projection for the US this year by 0.5 percentage point, to 2.7 percent.

Goods trade growth set to moderate as barometer index dips

November 28, 2025-Goods trade growth appears to have slowed in the second half of 2025 following a surge in the first half driven by frontloading of imports ahead of expected tariff hikes and by rising demand for AI-related products, according to the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer.