Global goods trade on track for gradual recovery despite lingering downside risks

October 10, 2024--Global goods trade is projected to post a 2.7% increase in 2024, up slightly from the previous estimate of 2.6%, WTO economists said in an updated forecast on 10 October.
The volume of world merchandise trade is likely to increase by 3.0% in 2025; however, rising geopolitical tensions and increased economic policy uncertainty continue to pose substantial downside risks to the forecast.

Services trade has a more favourable outlook compared to goods according to leading indicators.

In the October 2024 update of "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics," WTO economists note that global merchandise trade turned upwards in the first half of 2024 with a 2.3% year-on-year increase, which should be followed by further moderate expansion in the rest of the year and in 2025. The rebound comes on the heels of a -1.1% slump in 2023 driven by high inflation and rising interest rates. World real GDP growth at market exchange rates is expected to remain steady at 2.7% in 2024 and 2025.